761.9411/97: Telegram
The Ambassador in France (Leahy) to the Secretary of State
[Received 5:02 p.m.]
445. Embassy’s telegram 436, April 13, 8 p.m. After two days without information the Foreign Office has now received a telegram from Moscow with reference to the Russo-Japanese pact which Chauvel showed us this morning. Labonne69 reported that the signature of the pact has occasioned less surprise than the unprecedented public attitude of Stalin in proceeding to the station to bid farewell “to one who was not Chief of State”. While it had generally been expected by observers in Moscow, the telegram continued, that the Japanese would have to pay “a higher price” for such an agreement, developments in the West had hastened Moscow’s acceptance.
Chauvel has come to the conclusion that the Russians feel, with the situation “deteriorating” as rapidly as it is in the Balkans and the “certainty” of a German move on the Ukraine within the next three months “whether the British make peace or not”, the Kremlin must have insurance against any Japanese attack in the East in order to protect itself and “its interests” in the West. The only sure guarantee against such Japanese attack would be Japanese involvement in the south. Consequently Chauvel still confidently expects an early Japanese attack against Singapore. As an indication in this direction [Page 954] he says that, since the signing of the agreement with Russia, the Japanese attitude with respect to Indochina has become noticeably more aggressive (please see Embassy’s telegram No. 428, April 11, 6 p.m.70).
He feels that the Russians must have weighed all the factors and decided that the weakening of the British through such a move and consequently of the Russian position in the West must be accepted as the price for insurance against Japan, “particularly as Moscow expects the United States to take care of the Japanese”.
Labonne reported that the Chinese Embassy at Moscow has expressed satisfaction with the considerable amount of material which the Russians have been furnishing the Chinese over the past several months and that the Embassy does not expect any change in this policy as a result of the Russo-Japanese pact. If such a change of policy does take place, said Labonne, it should be readily apparent in the very near future.