Memorandum by Mr. William R. Lang don, of the Division of Far Eastern Affairs

The first news of the fall of the Konoye Cabinet links this event with the rejection by the controlling forces in Japan of Prince Konoye’s conditions for adjustment of Japanese-American relations.

It is believed that the Cabinet crisis is related to the China question, that is, that the crisis has arisen from the unwillingness of the war party of Japan to agree to any sacrifices in China or other occupied territory. It is not believed that the crisis augurs any new dangerous move, specifically, an attack on Siberia, inasmuch as it is not believed that Japan has either the man power or the war equipment to fight [Page 513] a large scale modern campaign in addition to the China campaign. If any new campaign is undertaken to key up the Japanese people, it is believed that such campaign will be directed toward some region where no serious resistance is anticipated, specifically Thailand.