711.94/2320: Telegram
The Ambassador in Japan (Grew) to the Secretary of State
[Received September 30—10:51 a.m.]
1544. For the Secretary and Under Secretary only. I understand from my British colleague that the British Government, although admittedly without knowledge of the precise character and scope of the settlement which is envisaged in the present exploratory conversations between the American and Japanese Governments, would not [Page 490] view with favor any settlement by negotiation with Japan on the ground that there would be given Japan a breathing spell to recuperate and to muster its forces for further acts of aggression at the first favorable opportunity.
As indicated in the last paragraph of my 1529, September 29, noon, I plainly realize that there may be considerations lying entirely outside my competence which might dictate need for returning a negative reply to the proposal of the Japanese Government. Anticipating the probability that the British Government, if ever consulted by our Government, would advance the argument above set forth, I wish to present briefly the following considerations.
- 1.
- Germany, because of its power and resources, is the primary threat to the democracies. If Germany were to defeat Britain, the fact of Japan’s having been given a breathing spell would presumably be a matter of secondary interest and concern to the British people. If on the other hand Germany were defeated, the problem of them preventing a nation, which has been unable to defeat China after more than four years of supreme effort, from engaging in further acts of aggression would be incomparably less difficult and less costly than disposing of that nation during the course of the present war.
- 2.
- There are many reasons for believing that the adverse trend in American-Japanese relations, now temporarily arrested by the current conversations, could not continue indefinitely without terminating in conflict between Japan and the democracies. The full weight of the latter’s cause in the event of such conflict would fall upon the United States, requiring the diversion and expenditure on a large scale of personnel and material now vitally needed by Britain.
- 3.
- If satisfactory adjustment of Pacific problems could be made, the
cause of the democracies would be benefited by:
- (a)
- Injury to the morale of the peoples of Germany and Italy and of other nations associated with or sympathetic toward those countries;
- (b)
- The transference to the Atlantic of the American fleet gradually and in step with the liquidation of Japan’s expansionist program;
- (c)
- Availability of Japanese merchant ships and dockyards to moderate increasingly acute shortage of British shipping.