Foreign Relations of the United States Diplomatic Papers, 1941, The Far East, Volume IV

793.94/16817

Memorandum by the Adviser on Political Relations (Hornbeck)⁴³

[Washington,] July 22, 1941.

This telegram⁴⁴ contains—up to the last paragraph—a summary by Mr. Butrick of a memorandum supplied by Dr. Leighton Stuart, President of Yenching University, at Peiping.⁴⁵

. . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Reasonable attention should, I think, be given to these estimates that the time factor is running strongly against the Japanese. In our formulation of policies and procedures we should make the assumption that Japan can be defeated (in China) without China’s having gained a military victory—provided China’s resistance can be maintained at a certain level of efficiency and for a sufficiently long period. In other words, Chinese effort plus American aid plus time can produce a situation wherein Japan’s effort in China may be automatically (but of course only gradually) liquidated.

On the positive side, we should aid China toward the producing of that situation. On the negative side, we should avoid taking any steps which would tend to prevent a developing of that situation.

S[tanley] K. H[ornbeck]

43. Noted by the Acting Secretary of State.
44. Dated July 15, 2 p.m., from the Counselor of Embassy in China, p. 322.
45. Dated July 14, not printed, but see memorandum by Mr. Alger Hiss, September 4, p. 422.