Captain Roscoe E. Schuirmann, of the Office of Naval Operations, to the Under Secretary of State (Welles)

On July 3 the following was sent to the Naval Attaché London:

The unmistakable deduction from information from numerous sources is that the Japanese Government has determined upon its future policy which is supported by all principal Japanese political and military groups. This policy probably involves war in the near future. An advance against the British and Dutch cannot be entirely ruled out, however the Chief of Naval Operations holds the opinion that Jap activity in the south will be for the present confined to seizure and development of naval, army and air bases in Indo China. The neutrality pact with Russia will be abrogated and major military effort will be against their maritime provinces which will probably be toward the end of July though attack may be deferred until after collapse of European Russia. They have ordered all Jap vessels in U. S. Atlantic ports to be west of Panama Canal by 1 August. Movement of Jap flag shipping from Japan has been suspended and additional [Page 299] merchant vessels are being requisitioned. Using utmost secrecy, inform principal army commanders and your own immediate subordinates also British chiefs of staff and Ambassador.

In response the following was received July 6, 1941:

I have communicated your message to the chiefs of staff, who thank you for it and reply that their information is very similar. Jap policy to them, is accepted by all the principal Jap military and political groups and appears to be:

to seize in Indo China, naval and air bases for which shipping and military forces are held ready;
for the expansion southward, to take advantage of any opportunity that arises;
for the present, to take no military action against the Soviet.

Japan military dispositions support this view and this policy would not necessitate the abrogation of the pact of neutrality with the Soviet, at any rate not for the present. Should circumstances arise which tempted her eventually to attack the Soviet, Japan might however find an occasion to do so.

R. E. Schuirmann

By Direction