761.9411/150
The Ambassador in China (Johnson) to the Secretary of State
[Received May 29.]
Sir: I have the honor to enclose, as of probable interest to the Department, an English translation37 prepared in this Embassy from the text of a telegram allegedly despatched by General Chiang Kai-shek to commanders of the war zones, to provincial party headquarters, and to provincial governments on April 24, 1941, expressing his views of the advantages and disadvantages accruing to China from the conclusion of the Russo-Japanese Neutrality Pact of April 13, 1941. The Embassy obtained the Chinese-language text of the telegram from a reliable source and, on the basis of recent conversations held between General Chiang and the Ambassador and of discussions of Embassy officers with Chinese officials close to General Chiang, entertains no doubt that the document is authentic and actually represents the considered views of the Generalissimo. The views expressed in the telegram are believed to be worthy of the closest scrutiny.
Summary of telegram. Russian supplies are coming into China as usual. The Soviet authorities have given assurances that the Pact has no reference to China, that Soviet policy toward China remains unaltered and that Russia will continue to aid China. The Pact was concluded on Russian initiative and Russia derived advantages from the Pact, Japan disadvantages. The maximum Japanese force which may be withdrawn from Manchuria does not exceed six divisions and use of these divisions in China cannot end the conflict. The Joint Declaration was most regrettable but it is not a permanent obstacle to the integrity and sovereignty of China. Conditions being what they are at present, China alone has the power to check Japan and even if [Page 183] supplies from abroad were completely stopped, China could continue the conflict for two years or more. If Japan launches a further military attack on China there are three possible routes of attack: 1) the northwestern route, 2) the southwestern route and 3) the Yangtze route to Chungking. All these present greater difficulties than the Japanese encountered in taking Wuhan. Following the Pact, Japan has three alternatives: a) after Soviet Russia transfers its Siberian forces westward Japan will risk a southward advance; b) Japan will wait until Germany attacks Russia when it will attack Russia from the east; c) Japan will endeavor to settle the “China incident”. But whatever alternative is chosen Japan is on the road to defeat. China will cooperate with the Pacific Powers to check Japan. This is China’s fixed policy and it will not be changed. China’s resistance is a pillar of strength to the safety of the Pacific. The United States will not come to a rapprochement with Japan short of restoration of international justice and the Open Door, nor will Great Britain or Soviet Russia sacrifice China. All officials, soldiers and countrymen must energetically prepare for the future.
It would appear plausible to suggest that General Chiang’s object in sending this remarkable telegram to the field was to renew the confidence of officers and men whose morale may have been affected to a certain extent by news of the signing of the Russo-Japanese Neutrality Pact, as well as by German victories in the Balkans, the deterioration of the internal economic situation and the failure of the central authorities to patch up difficulties with the Chinese communists. The telegram constitutes an affirmation of the correctness of the cardinal policy followed by the Chinese Government since the start of the Sino-Japanese conflict, a policy which had as its basic factor the premise that the United States and Great Britain would come to realize sooner or later that they must assist China to check Japan in order to ensure their own protection and security. General Chiang makes the point that that time has now arrived and he is buoyed up by the feeling that he has foreseen the shaping of developments in their true perspective. The telegram seems chiefly significant for the spirit of optimism and confidence in which it is couched notwithstanding the adversities of the past four years, the many difficult problems now confronting China and the future uncertainties of a world engulfed in violence.
Respectfully yours,
- Not printed.↩