894.00/873: Telegram
The Chargé in Japan (Dooman) to the Secretary of State
[Received September 1—10:30 a.m.]
450. 1. The Foreign Office informed me this afternoon, in response to an informal inquiry, that it was not as yet prepared to express the views of the Japanese Government with regard to the situation developing in Europe.
2. When interviewed by the press last night the Prime Minister stated that the first and paramount business of the new Government would be to dispose as quickly as possible of the China conflict. Although Japan would follow a free and independent policy she would not rule out cooperation with other countries so long as such cooperation would not conflict with Japan’s position and would not place Japan at the mercy of the power or powers extending such cooperation.
3. The logic of the situation as well as the authoritative expression above outlined indicates that Japan will not rush into any new commitments. In my opinion long term political considerations, such as the probable ultimate victory of the democratic powers of Europe supported morally and in various practical ways by the United States, the traditional conflict of interests with Russia, et cetera, will operate to press Japan to seek the friendship of the United States and Great Britain.
4. A study prepared by the Commercial Attaché of the probable effects of war in Europe on Japanese industry and trade suggests another important consideration. Williams points out that the immediate effects of a European war should bring about a sharp increase in the demand for American goods, particularly cotton, wood pulp, machinery and other industrial equipment, nonferrous metals, iron and steel and chemicals including dyestuffs and fertilizers. However, the study discloses that the interruption of supplies of the commodities [Page 224] above mentioned from the European countries and of primary materials from British overseas areas would vastly increase the importance of the United States as a source of supply to Japan. Without increased American supplies of oil, steel, iron, machinery, pulp, cotton and chemicals, Japan’s industrial expansion program would completely break down and her present productive capacity would be seriously curtailed. If this conclusion is correct, and I believe that it is, economic expediency would combine with political considerations to develop in this country a desire for a restoration of good relations with the democratic countries.
Repeated to Peiping; Peiping please repeat to Chungking.