760d.61/502: Telegram
The Chargé in the Soviet Union (Thurston) to the Secretary of State
[Received November 29—11:18 a.m.]
961. Strictly confidential unconfirmed reports have reached the Embassy today to the effect that Soviet forces are being withdrawn from the Polish area and transferred to the north and that specialized reservists in the Moscow area are being called up.
Opinion in diplomatic and other foreign circles here is divided as to the possible intentions of the Soviet Government at this time. Some observers consider that the Soviet Government is merely endeavoring so to harass the Finnish Government, that in order to be relieved of the strain to which it is being subjected it will reopen negotiations with the Soviet Government while others hold the view that when domestic opinion has been sufficiently educated and stimulated the Soviet Government will take forcible means to gain its objectives in Finland.
It is difficult to estimate the significance which should be attached to current developments in the Finnish-Soviet situation as in the last analysis it will depend upon the real objectives entertained by Stalin. If it is his purpose merely to remove to a safer distance the frontier which he feels to be too close to Leningrad, a move by Soviet forces to bring about such a rectification might not necessarily lead to general hostilities with Finland. Should he, however, be determined to gain a naval base on Finnish territory at the entrance to the Gulf of Finland any military move designed to take possession of such a base presumably would lead to major hostilities. There is, of course, no evidence upon which to formulate an opinion on these points—other than that afforded by the nature of the several demands made upon Finland during the recent negotiations. It will be recalled in this connection that the collapse of those negotiations resulted from the refusal of the Finnish Government to grant such a base.