793.94/12357: Telegram
The Chargé in the Soviet Union (Henderson) to the Secretary of State
Moscow, February 5, 1938—5
p.m.
[Received 5:44 p.m.]
[Received 5:44 p.m.]
35. Reference to my telegram No. 5, January 8, 7 p.m.6 Yui Ming, Chinese Chargé d’Affaires, told me the following yesterday in strict confidence.
- 1.
- (a) The mission of Sun Fo7 has obtained its first objective, namely, the creation of an atmosphere of mutual confidence which permits a friendly exchange of views (whether or not he meant by this statement that contact had been established with Stalin8 is not clear).
- (b) The negotiations are considered to be of so delicate a nature that the members of the mission avoid seeing any persons except the highest Soviet officials for fear their statements or actions may be given a false interpretation; they are not even telegraphing their home government since they do not trust their own codes. Telegraphing is unnecessary, however, since the mission has full powers to negotiate and sign without reference to the Chinese Government.
- (c) Most members have an American education and are carrying on negotiations with best Western traditions; they will give no promise which China will not keep, which it may regret in happier years or which may prejudice the position in China of other friendly powers.
- (d) Rumors that the Soviet Government is agreeing to recognize full Chinese sovereignty over Outer Mongolia in return for certain concessions or that the Kremlin is intriguing with the purpose of having Chiang Kai Shek replaced by more liberal Chinese leaders are Japanese inspired.
- 2.
- Although I elaborated somewhat on the various rumors relating to Mongolia, he did not deny that Mongolia figures in the negotiations. It has not been possible as yet to obtain through any authoritative source in this particular the concrete points under discussion.
- 3.
- (a) Japan estimates the present strength of the Trans-Baikal Army at about 20 divisions totalling slightly more than 350,000 men. Our Military Attaché considers this figure as excessive.
- (b) During recent weeks there has been a tendency to move those divisions hitherto stationed in the neighborhood of Baikal towards the east and to replace them with fresh troops from Central Siberia.
- (c) His Government is somewhat concerned at unconfirmed rumors that troops are being concentrated in rather large numbers in Central Siberia in localities which would permit their rapid transfer into the Trans-Baikal region.
- (d) There are two fully equipped Soviet divisions in Outer Mongolia.
- (e) In his opinion the Soviet Union does not desire to enter into an armed conflict with Japan at present although during recent weeks it has been following a policy only short thereof.
- 4.
- There is little doubt that shipments of supplies and equipment which could be devoted to military purposes have been going to the Far East in larger volume than usual during the last 6 weeks. The supplies apparently include both clothing and foodstuffs; nevertheless the foreign observers in whom I have most confidence still feel that these measures are of precautionary measures only and that the Soviet Union is not seriously preparing to make an attack on Japan.
- 5.
- The Soviet press although continuing to carry on an anti-Japanese campaign nevertheless from time to time displays resentment at rumors that the Soviet Union is preparing to enter the war in the Far East. An article in yesterday’s Pravda for instance denounces the authors of slanderous rumors who are seeking to excite Japan against the Soviet Union by intimating “that the Soviet Union is preparing to make an attack on Japan”. The article continues: “they are trying to frighten the Japanese to persuade them that it is necessary to hurry and beat the Soviet Union to it. On the other hand they are endeavoring to provoke the Soviet Union by trying to prove the necessity of a preventive move against Japan. In vain are the reactionary English circles secretly nourishing the hope that they will be able to turn the wave of aggression away from the British Empire.”
Henderson