Foreign Relations of the United States, Diplomatic Papers, 1938, The Far East, Volume III

760F.62/1581: Telegram

The Ambassador in Japan (Grew) to the Secretary of State

Tokyo, October 10, 1938—midnight.
[Received October 10—7:30 p.m.]

655. Our 626, September 27, 9 p.m.

1. We have substantial confirmation of the accuracy of our analysis of the official Japanese attitude toward war in Europe which seemed inevitable 2 weeks ago, and we believe that such attitude remains unchanged even though it is obvious that over the short haul such a war would give Japan freedom from European intervention in China. However, the apparent success with which Chamberlain³² is exploiting the momentum given by the Munich Agreement to his policy of appeasement is being noted here with concern. The possibility of the Far East being brought by the European powers within the compass of a plan for assuring a general peace is under discussion, one leading paper today suggesting the likelihood that a move with such end in view may be made by Britain and France jointly with Germany and Italy in the event of the present Anglo-Italian conversations and projected French-Italian conversations ending in friendly arrangements.

2. The Department will appreciate that the scarcity here of any but tendentious or otherwise unreliable news with regard to European developments makes it difficult for us to place in accurate perspective Japanese discussions of the nature above indicated. As stated in my previous telegram on this subject, Japan would have preferred to a European war the continuation in that area of conditions of unrest and alarm. We assume that, whereas the trend in Europe is definitely favorable, progress has not yet been made to a point where definite thought is being given to the Far East. If that assumption is correct, Japanese anticipation at this early date of possible European intervention in the Far East would appear to betray absence of confidence in continued support from Fascist countries and a state of nervousness over the future hitherto not apparent. It may be significant in this connection that much prominence is being given to reported assurances received from Poland and Peru that these countries will not apply economic sanctions against Japan.

3. The increased vigor shown in the last few days in the Japanese offensive on Hankow may be due, as is suggested by one paper today, to desire to reach that objective in anticipation of European developments referred to in paragraph 1 above.

Repeated to Canton for Chungking.

Grew

32. Neville Chamberlain, British Prime Minister.