894.00/784: Telegram

The Ambassador in Japan ( Grew ) to the Secretary of State

239. There is much discussion in the press of a possible change of Government in the near future. Press accounts of the situation within the Cabinet and evidence presented to support forecasts of political changes are obscure, contradictory and I believe largely speculative. The only statement of fact which I am now prepared to make is that the Cabinet is apparently not united in matters of important policy and that its reorganization is under consideration. Our analysis of the situation made in the light of discussions in the press and orally by well informed Japanese is presented hereunder.

2.
The most important element in the situation is a difference of opinion that has developed within the Cabinet as to the courses, military and political, which should be pursued by Japan in dealing with the conflict with China. Our best information is that Konoye heads a group which believes that it is not enough for Japan to cease “dealing [Page 139] with” the Chinese Government (as expressed in the declaration of January 1613) and that that Government can be destroyed only by the most drastic and positive measures; and that the Minister of War heads an opposition group, which believes that the same results can be more economically obtained by continuation of the “long duration war” policy through inevitably causing the economic and financial collapse of China. Our information as to the respective positions of the two leaders may be incorrect, but there appears to be little doubt but that the issue has arisen.
3.
The political parties have repeatedly expressed to the Prime Minister desire for greater representation in the Cabinet. This is believed to be a matter which can be adjusted with not too great difficulty as the Ministry of Health is vacant and the Overseas Minister and the Minister of Agriculture, both close personal friends of the Prime Minister, are said to be willing to give way.
4.
We understand that the present situation was precipitated by the Prime Minister expressing a desire to resign because of ill-health and other personal reasons (he has not been well for several years). He has apparently been persuaded to exclude such personal reasons in deciding his future course.
5.
As the position taken by the Minister of War with regard to the China conflict is presumably the considered position of the army, no improvement in the situation in the Cabinet can be expected were Sugiyama to be replaced by another general. It is our view, therefore, that the problem which Konoye must solve is whether (a) he should continue in office with the present Cabinet (not importantly reconstituted to include a few more representatives of the political parties) or (b) resign and thus make possible the organizing of a new and more united Cabinet. It is reported that on April 17 Konoye will send a messenger to Prince Saionji14 to obtain his “advice”. Probably no important development will occur before that date.

Repeated to Shanghai for Hankow.

Grew