793.94/12675: Telegram
The Ambassador in Japan (Grew) to the Secretary of State
Tokyo, March
18, 1938—4 p.m.
[Received March 18—8:55 a.m.]
[Received March 18—8:55 a.m.]
180. Department’s 77, March 5, 2 p.m.1
- 1.
- There exists no consensus of opinion among foreign observers here on the question whether Japan is preparing to move in the near future against the Soviet Union. European opinion is that no such military action is being planned. All shades of opinion agree that there are no evidences of such action.
- 2.
- Our estimate of the situation is:
- (a)
- The Japanese public is not especially aroused at this time against Russia and it does not appear that any effort is being made to mobilize public opinion as might be expected if military action were imminent.
- (b)
- Japanese forces in Manchuria are estimated to be smaller than Soviet forces in Eastern Siberia.
- (c)
- Economic issues and frontier and other disputes will probably aggravate ill-feeling especially if both countries resort to reprisals and counter-reprisals as seems likely but these disputes have been occurring more or less continually during the past several years.
- (d)
- The irresponsible young officer element in the Japanese Army which is capable of precipitating a conflict introduces a strong element of uncertainty into any estimate.
A despatch will go forward in tomorrow’s pouch.2
Grew