760F.62/474: Telegram
The Ambassador in France (Bullitt) to the Secretary of State
[Received July 13—2:10 p.m.]
1104. As I have had conversations far too numerous and voluminous to report with President Lebrun and nearly all members of the Government and a number of generals during the past few days it has occurred to me that you might be interested in a consensus of their opinions:
France will go to war if the German Army enters Czechoslovakia.
It is possible but not probable that Hitler will order such action in cold blood. The diplomatic constellation at the moment is unfavorable for such action by Germany. Not only France but also England would fight, the Soviet Union would send airplanes, Poland and Rumania after a brief period of neutrality would enter the war on the side of France and England, Hungary and Italy would remain neutral. The general hatred of Germany in America would lead to eventual support of France and England by the United States.
Under these circumstances it would be folly for Hitler to provoke war and up to date he has displayed great diplomatic acumen. It is improbable therefore that he will order German troops to cross the Czech frontier unless the Czechs give intolerable provocation by shooting a considerable number of Sudeten.
It is possible but not probable that such provocation will be given by the Czechs. The concessions to be offered to the Sudeten may be so inadequate that the Sudeten may attempt to develop para-military [Page 530] formations which the Czechs would have to disperse by force. War would be produced by the ensuing incidents.
Hitler probably will wait until the diplomatic situation is more favorable to Germany. He needs another card in his hand and has a good chance of drawing Hungary. Fully realizes Nazis are making great headway among the land hungry Hungarian peasants by promising to divide the great estates.
Meanwhile Germany has begun to construct with feverish haste a second great fortified line behind the present Siegfried Line. This new line extends from the North Sea to the Swiss border. From the North Sea to the Moselle it is an independent line. From the Moselle south to Switzerland it is a development in depth of the existing Siegfried Line. It is being constructed by the Army Engineering Corps assisted by the Labor Front and all other available laborers. It will not be a concrete construction like Maginot Line but will be so strong that every part of it will require bombardment by heavy artillery for reduction.
No field of free maneuver even by way of Belgium or Holland will be left to the French or British Armies, and action in aid of any country in Eastern or Central Europe will be rendered almost too costly in lives to contemplate. This line will be in a fair state of preparation in 2 months.
If German troops should enter Czechoslovakia at the present time even if France and England should go to war at once to aid Czechoslovakia, Germany would be in full control of Czechoslovakia within 3 weeks.
The war in Spain will end in a Franco victory unless general war should come this summer and French troops should assist the Barcelona Government. This would produce an Italian attack on France and the North African colonies of France.
The next French financial crisis will come in October or November. The present Government may then fall and if war does not break out this summer there may be another critical period in the autumn.