834.00/885
The Minister in Paraguay (Howard) to the Secretary of State
[Received May 25.]
Sir: I have the honor to report upon the present political situation:
Except for the activities of those affiliated with the present Government in pushing the organization of a new political party, the Union Nacional Revolucionario, no other activities have been permitted. In a recent conversation with the secretary of the new party, I was told that there were now enrolled therein 30,000 members. A few days later Dr. Stefanich, Minister for Foreign Affairs, told me the number was 35,000. It is very difficult to judge as to the strength of this new organization, whether as to the number of adherents or as to the degree of their loyalty, since it is undoubtedly true that many persons holding Government positions or hoping for favors have nominally affiliated with the new party as a matter of convenience.
Although there have been several recent rumors of supposed conspiracies and several former members of the present régime, including Bernardino Caballero, ex-Minister of Agriculture and ex-Minister of Hacienda, and Molas Lopez, former Mayor of Asunción, have been deported and others, including Colonel Caballero Alvarez, Commander-in-chief of the armed forces, removed from their official positions, the situation at present is quieter than at any time since the present régime assumed power and apparently it is more firmly entrenched than ever. However, I am very confidentially informed that the old Liberal crowd, practically all the leaders of which are in exile, is industriously at work in the attempt to overthrow the present régime and expect to make that attempt within a few weeks or months.
As long as the army remains united and in support of the present Government, any attempt at its overthrow would seem doomed to failure. Recent rumors have it that there is increasing dissatisfaction among the officials in the army with the present régime. Should a division in their ranks occur it might and probably would result in civil strife, the extent and results of which it is impossible to estimate.
[Page 718]An indication that the Government may not be as confident of popular support as it professes, may be found in its plans regarding the holding of elections. It will be recalled (See my despatch No. 228 of July 18, 19361) that it was expected to hold such elections early in the present year. A few days ago Dr. Stefanich told me that they now hoped to be able to reach some decision in this respect in July or August when the organization of the new party, the Union National Revolucionario, should have been more completely accomplished and stated: “some want to hold the elections in February of next year, the second anniversary of the revolution,2 but I fear that is too soon as it would have a bad effect to fix a date and then have to change it”.
In conclusion it is my opinion that the status quo will be maintained for sometime yet unless the old Liberal crowd is able to reach at least a part of the army officials in which event interesting times may be expected.
Respectfully yours,
- Not printed.↩
- See Foreign Relations, 1936, vol. v, pp. 858 ff.↩