Foreign Relations of the United States, Diplomatic Papers, 1937, The Far East, Volume III

793.94/11487: Telegram

The Second Secretary of Embassy in China (Atcheson) to the Secretary of State

Nanking, December 6, 1937—11 a.m.
[Received 2 p.m.]

999. Embassy’s 986, December 3, 11 a.m., and previous.

1. This morning Chiang Kai Shek’s adviser, Donald, gave Mc-Hugh⁸⁴ and me confidentially as his estimate of present situation the following (which, because Donald’s position with General and Mrs. Chiang is in the nature of a member of the family, may be considered as closely resembling their personal opinion):

2. The Chinese now have no means of receiving supplies to recreate their army and air force. American planes purchased cannot reach China; the French will not permit planes and other war materials purchased from Germany to proceed through Indochina or permit French planes to be set up there and flown into China; planes purchased in England cannot be set up in Hong Kong. With no material help from the powers in the way of necessary military supplies peace negotiations are inevitable. Chiang’s position is that he himself will not enter into negotiations but will leave them to the so-called pro-Japanese groups in the Government and he resigned the Presidency of the Executive Yuan some time ago to avoid responsibility of negotiations. Among matters mentioned by Trautmann during his visit here December 1–2 were Japanese desires to have Wang Ching Wei and Chang Chun prominent in the Chinese Government and Ho Ying Chin head of the army. Peace negotiations will begin shortly in Hankow between Japanese and interested Chinese officials and a new Chinese Government along lines desired by the Japanese will emerge. The Japanese want peace because they fear they cannot continue indefinitely to support large scale hostilities. Soviet Russia will not join with China unless attacked by Japan. China is helpless and China as an independent nation is finished.

3. It has been impression of the Embassy here that what hopes have remained to the Chinese were centered in a war of attrition. Up to a week ago we knew from McHugh’s daily association with Donald that hopes of recreating the Chinese air force and building up the shattered Chinese armies were still high. The arrival of the Soviet planes with Soviet flying and other personnel perhaps created an overconfidence; those planes failed to fulfill expectations, and hopes of Chinese military success on land and in the air have been dissipated. We have been unable to perceive any indication that definite plans have been adopted for the forming of any real defense line west of Nanking. To us it seems that the Generalissimo has come to realize that what remains of China under his control will be denied the source of supply from the south on which he had confidently counted for continued resistance in the west. There have been numerous indications and assurance from Donald up to now that Chiang expected to build a new China in the west. He now apparently concedes that he faces isolation and that a Chinese Government administering Szechuen, Yunnan, Kwangsi, Kweichow, (Kwangtung is vulnerable to the Japanese) perhaps parts of Kiangsi and Fukien and the distant wastes of Kansu cannot successfully pretend to be the Government of China and that the situation is hopeless for him and his cause.

4. Sent Hankow, Peiping, Shanghai. Peiping, please repeat to Tokyo.

Atcheson

84. Capt. James M. McHugh, U. S. M. C, Assistant Naval Attaché in China.