Office of the Historian

793.94/11464: Telegram

The Ambassador in Japan (Grew) to the Secretary of State

Tokyo, December 5, 1937—2 p.m.
[Received December 5—6:30 a.m.]

598. Our 595, December 4, 8 p.m.

1.
The papers this morning state that conferences between the Government and Imperial Headquarters will take place to decide upon a matter of “high national policy” to be made effective upon the capture of Nanking which is expected to occur before the end of the year. Some papers report that the policy under reference is the question of canceling Japan’s recognition of the Chinese Government while others say that it is the question of issuing a declaration of war.
2.
The opinion is generally held among Japanese who have access in varying degrees to official despatches and among Chinese experts [Page 765] that notwithstanding acquiescence by the Chinese Government in the mediatory efforts of Trautmann the Chinese Government is not as yet in any mood to make peace. As they see it the Chinese Government has given its assent to German effort at mediation in order first, to stimulate rivalry between the Fascist nations and the democratic nations and eventually to secure positive intervention on the side of China by the latter group. The estimate of these Japanese is that China is relying on a war of endurance but they believe that such strategy will prove illusory unless foreign help in the form of war supplies continues.
3.
There have been persistent suggestions that the removal of the Chinese Government to remote points in the interior has reduced the status of that Government to that of a local regime and that therefore recognition should be withdrawn. However, arguments of this kind would usually be a prelude to the setting up of some new Chinese regime under Japanese control and would not necessarily go to make a case for a declaration for war.
4.
In our view the capture of Nanking will probably be signalized by promulgation of some new Japanese policy. That policy may take the form of a declaration of war or the setting up of a new Chinese regime or both.

Repeated to Peiping and [for?] relay to Ambassador Johnson.83

Grew
  1. Final paragraph added on instruction of the Ambassador in Japan in his unnumbered telegram received December 6, 6 a.m.↩