793.94/11093: Telegram
The Ambassador in China (Johnson) to the Secretary of State
[Received 9:45 p.m.]
909. Minister of Industries this morning described Japanese hostilities against China as dictated by the military faction partly to revenge failure of China to be subservient to Japan and partly as announced in hope of obtaining for Japan economic advantages in China. Informant said that entirely apart from any decision of the Chinese Government to resist this invasion it was foredoomed to failure by the seizure of Manchuria which solidified Chinese popular sentiment against Japan. Subsequent coercive measures have intensified this popular fear and animosity so that if the Chinese Government [Page 676] were now to agree to peace terms dictated by Japan the Government would be overthrown and the country would lapse into chaos and communism. Economic exploitation of China by Japan would then be impossible. Informant asserted the Japanese military faction has no intelligent policy but only the insane desire to subjugate and to wreak revenge as evidenced by methodical bombing of industrial enterprises. Whole Japanese program is based upon two initial errors: (1st) in the belief that China could not offer any resistance to invasion and (2nd) that China would yield to mere intimidation. These errors have cost Japan already 2,500,000,000 yen in military expenditures and twice that in economic losses. China can prolong resistance indefinitely because it has an agricultural economy and the people have unlimited capacity for endurance and extremely low standard of living. The losses to Japan can thus be doubled while control by Japan of the five northern provinces and of Shanghai will gain for Japan little if any economic advantages with the interior solidly opposed. Informant felt that the Brussels Conference would accomplish at least two good results if nothing more: first, the discussions would demonstrate to the world the falsity of Japan’s pretense that the present hostilities are designed to promote friendly relations with China which China unreasonably refuses, it being clear that Japan’s own actions have made it impossible for any Chinese Government to submit and continue in power. Discussions will show also that world powers like Great Britain, France and the United States cannot abstain from taking some part in the affairs of the Far East. Informant made observations indicating that the Government contemplates the necessity sometime of transferring to some city in the interior. The conviction expressed by this informant that continued resistance to Japan is inescapable is the more interesting because he can speak Japanese, has numerous Japanese friends and before the present Japanese invasion was known as a leader in the pro-Japanese faction. He is reliably quoted as stating recently in a political conference that war with Japan would end in defeat and peace with Japan would result in chaos but that from defeat China would revive as a nation whereas chaos would mean extinction.
Sent to Peiping, Tokyo.