741.94/92
The Ambassador in Japan (Grew) to the Secretary of State
[Received May 3.]
Sir: I have the honor to report that the settlement of the Keelung Incident,71 reported in recent telegrams,* is possibly more indicative of the present trend in Anglo-Japanese relations than the liquidation of a minor difference would ordinarily be. It will be recalled that this dispute had dragged on since last October and that little progress was made toward a settlement although the British Government had made it amply clear, both through representations in Tokyo and in replies to questions in Parliament, that it considered the affair a most serious impediment to the progress of Anglo-Japanese relations. The matter had settled down to a stubborn battle with few signs of a disposition on either side to make concessions. Suddenly, however, on the eve of Prince Chichibu’s72 scheduled arrival at Southampton the Foreign [Page 65] Office announced an exchange of letters between the Director General of the Formosan Government and the British Consul at Tamsui in which the Japanese Government expressed both regret for the incident and included the admission of improper conduct on the part of the Japanese policeman involved. Those familiar with the practice of the Japanese authorities in such affairs will realize that the admission of improper conduct on the part of Japanese officials is extremely rare and thus the settlement indicates a serious effort on the part of the Japanese to conciliate the British Government and public opinion.
While there is no doubt a connection between the fact of Prince Chichibu’s impending arrival in England and the settlement of the Keelung Incident, implying the fear that the warmth of the Prince’s reception might have been affected, nevertheless the thought suggests itself that Mr. Sato, whose intelligent grasp of European affairs and of the foreign point of view is perhaps greater because of his long service in Europe, may have decided to seize the opportunity to inaugurate a new era in Anglo-Japanese relations, especially at a moment when the dramatic flight to London of the Asahi airplane presumably had impressed British public feeling.
Relations between Japan and Great Britain have noticeably become less favorable since the Leith-Ross mission to China in the fall of 1935. On his visit to Japan Sir Frederick Leith-Ross reportedly attempted to gain Japan’s cooperation in consenting to joint investment in China, but his advice in this matter was rejected. Great Britain’s progress in China has markedly increased and her prestige there has certainly gained at the expense of Japan following Britain’s reported part in the settlement of the Sian incident and the collapse of the Sino-Japanese negotiations at Nanking in the fall of 1936. In addition to this the German-Japanese anti-Comintern agreement was not only badly received in London but its effect has been to throw Great Britain into even closer relations with China, and even to cause the British to lean a little more toward Soviet Russia (with consequent detriment to Anglo-Japanese relations) due to the fact that the anti-Comintern pact is regarded by the British as tending to upset the balance of power. Eden73 is reported to feel that so long as Soviet Russia is powerful enough to hold off either Germany or Japan singly the equilibrium will not be disturbed, but if the two combine it will upset the balance and precipitate war.
Mr. Sato has given every indication that he is fully aware that Japanese relations with England must undergo a thorough overhauling. On March 23, previous to the dissolution of the last Diet, he was interpellated on the question of whether the Government intended to revive the former Anglo-Japanese alliance, an action which was advocated [Page 66] by a member of the Seiyukai, Mr. Kaju Nakamura. While the Foreign Minister’s replies indicated that Japan has no intention of attempting to restore the former alliance, nevertheless they made it perfectly clear that the Government will exert every effort to improve Anglo-Japanese relations by the best methods available.
The Embassy has examined the proceedings of the Diet on the date of the interpellation under reference and finds that Mr. Sato closed his reply with the following words: “I am of the opinion that some sort of treaty (with Great Britain), based on thorough understanding similar in purpose or in spirit to the former (Anglo-Japanese) alliance, would be highly fortunate and beneficial to both powers. But the question is very delicate—so delicate that I would refrain from expressing my own views at the present moment as to what methods might or might not be efficacious”.
We may also read into Mr. Sato’s declaration of policy regarding China†, in which he proposed to negotiate with that country on a basis of equality and in a conciliatory spirit—a bid for British, as well as American, approval. Certainly little progress can be made toward a substantial improvement of relations with Great Britain without an adjustment of the China issues. The British economic advance in Central and South China during the past year has been marked and there has been during the same period a definite setback in Japan’s economic progress in North China. It is quite possible that the Japanese Government now feels that the time may be favorable to approach Great Britain with a proposal of an agreement on the basis of the latter’s advantageous condition for some sort of division of economic spheres of influence in China, possibly in return for a solution of the disarmament issues. At any rate the signs are not lacking that definite gestures designed to improve relations are being made in the direction of Great Britain.
Respectfully yours,
- The incident involved alleged brutal treatment of British sailors by Japanese police at Keelung, Taiwan (Formosa), October 7, 1936.↩
- Embassy’s telegrams No. 108, April 12, 4 p.m., and No. 109, April 15, 5 p.m., 1937. [Footnote in the original; telegrams not printed.]↩
- Younger brother of the Japanese Emperor.↩
- Anthony Eden, British Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs.↩
- Embassy’s telegram No. 85, March 11, 6 p.m. [Footnote in the original.]↩