793.94111/35: Telegram
The Ambassador in China (Johnson) to the Secretary of State
[Received August 22—6:20 a.m.]
461. Department’s 152, August 16, 2 p.m. was received last evening at 5 p.m.
1. The reaction in China should the President decide to invoke the Neutrality Act will depend upon how the Chinese Government interprets [Page 438] to its people the meaning and effects of the application of the Act as hostilities advance. The first reaction will be a moral one.
The Chinese leaders and press may be expected to express keen regret that the United States, the country which has by word and deed been such a close friend of China for more than a century, should be the first nation formally to interdict all acts of concrete assistance to China. Later, if the application of the Act operates to the disadvantage of China, fancied or real, the Government will be disposed to play up that fact both for internal and external consumption in explaining its reverses. It must not be forgotten that the Chinese Government cannot rid itself of the feeling that the powers party to the Kellogg Pact and Nine Power Treaty should have done something in the past and still should do something now or in the future to restrain Japan. It clings to the belief that it is fighting now not only for its own life but also for the safety of the British Empire. The Minister for Foreign Affairs stated to me 2 days ago his belief that it is Japan’s aim to extinguish the Chinese Government, gain control of China’s resources in man-power and raw materials and in another 20 years be ready to challenge the position of England, France and the United States in the Pacific in the order named. Other Chinese leaders have long expressed this opinion which is widely held. The Chinese Government has therefore continued to hope for material assistance in a situation which it believes threatens all. The Chinese Government and people, I think, have come to accept the fact that the United States will not give material assistance. It is true that leaders in the Government are also well aware of the fact that the Neutrality Act places upon the President the heavy responsibility of deciding when war exists and when the Act must be applied. They even understand that sooner or later the Act is to be applied but they have not been able to resign themselves to the possible effect of the Act upon their position vis-à-vis Japan. If the effects of the application of the Act are in fact injurious the reaction in China will be resentful. See the statement made to Peck reported in Embassy’s 287, July 16, 3 p.m., paragraphs 3 and 4.33a
2. It is difficult for me to appraise the actual or probable effect of the application of the Act upon China’s ability to resist the Japanese, Even if the Act was not applied it seems hardly probable that the Chinese could hope to hold the coast or access to foreign sources of supply except through Hong Kong or over the borders. This situation exists now for all practical purposes. In such case it might be expected that the effect of the application of the Act would be more harmful to Japan than to the Chinese who would be free to buy from sources other than the United States while [Page 439] Japan would be cut off from the United States, its quickest source of materials and funds.