793.94/8888: Telegram
The Ambassador in Japan (Grew) to the Secretary of State
[Received July 21—9:55 a.m.]
216. The British Chargé d’Affaires has just shown me a telegram from his Government reporting Eden’s proposal to you through Bingham for an Anglo-American offer of mediation in Tokyo and Nanking as a last resort in view of what he considers to be a very serious situation.
2. I told Dodds that in my opinion neither the Japanese nor the Chinese Government wants war and that both sides are encountering difficulties in finding a way out (with all of which Dodds concurs) but that I doubted if the Japanese Government would either welcome or accept an offer of foreign mediation. I told him once again of the various steps which you have taken in Washington.
3. The private secretary of the Japanese Minister of War today told the British Military Attaché that they realize the difficulties of the position of Chiang Kai-shek but that the Japanese Government “still considers that the Nanking Government intends nothing beyond a war of words”. The private secretary added that the nearer the troops reach the scene of fighting the less reliable they become. The possibility of an extension of the trouble cannot be excluded but it is not probable. The British Chargé d’Affaires interprets this statement [Page 232] as an indication that the Japanese still believe that Nanking is bluffing.
4. Today the British Chargé d’Affaires has received a telegram from the British Ambassador in Nanking date 2 o’clock this morning in which the Ambassador takes a very serious view of the situation. Dodds has accordingly decided to see the Vice Minister this afternoon and read to him the following excerpt from that telegram.
“I feel I must emphasize the extreme seriousness of the present situation.
It is quite clear that Chiang Kai-shek still desires a peaceful solution but that anything amounting to complete surrender to the present Japanese demands would bring about his fall. A member of the Chinese General Staff (Major General Chu) informed the Military Attaché today that it was no longer a question of settling the Lukow-kiao incident but of loss or retention of two Chinese provinces (Hopei and Chahar). Position of the Central Government is that they are willing to negotiate with Japan through diplomatic channel on the present dispute in all its aspects and have offered arbitration and other method of settlement but that they cannot commit themselves to blind acceptance of some local settlement which will destroy their position in the north once and for all.
If the Japanese Government imagine that there is any element of bluff in the Chinese attitude they are making a great mistake.
The Chinese Government feel there is a point beyond which public opinion will not allow them to go in the direction of compliance with the Japanese demands.
If the Japanese Government insist on settlement with the local authorities in North China to the exclusion of the Central Government they must realize that war will be inevitable” (end of oral communication).
5. In reading the foregoing statement to the Vice Minister, Dodds will inform him that he is acting without instructions and entirely on his own initiative but that he cannot accept the responsibility of failing to convey what may be information of vital importance.
6. Later. The Chargé d’Affaires informs me that the Vice Minister listened without comment to the foregoing statement and merely expressed his thanks.
Repeated to Peiping.