814.00/1202
The Minister in Guatemala (Hanna) to the Secretary of State
[Received May 6.]
Sir: With further relation to the proposed amendment of the Guatemalan Constitution, and supplementing my despatch No. 607, of April 16, 1935, on that subject, I have the honor to report that elections will be held throughout the Republic tomorrow, May 1, and the two following days for members of the Constituent Assembly which is to meet in this capital on May 15 to decide on the proposed amendments.
The Administration is carrying out its program in this regard apparently without noteworthy protest or opposition, and it is generally assumed that the elections will be orderly. It is taken for granted that the resultant Constituent Assembly will carry out the wishes of President Ubico and will devise some change in or addition to the Constitution which will give an appearance of legality to the continuance of General Ubico in the office of President of the Republic for another term. It is universally believed here that the project to amend the Constitution, as originally submitted by the Executive to the Legislative Assembly, was but the first step in a carefully matured plan to maintain President Ubico in power. That this will be the outcome is already accepted as a fait accompli.
Government control of the press and of audible public opinion is sufficiently complete to give the surface indications a favorable aspect, but I have heard comments indicating a strong undercurrent of dissatisfaction, distrust and fear, and even rebellion. Conservative and influential Guatemalans who have a high regard for President Ubico and are hoping that his continuance in power is for the best interests of the country are, nevertheless, greatly worried by the irregularity [Page 621] of the procedure and fearful of ultimate consequences. The general run of the more or less illiterate Indians who constitute the bulk of the population probably are very little concerned, but skillful propaganda among them might eventually create open hostility to the Government. It is to be expected that President Ubico’s enemies within and without Guatemala will make the most of this opportunity to bring about his eventual downfall. The attitude in general of Guatemalans and foreigners with substantial interests in Guatemala seemingly is a mixture of satisfaction and fear. They apparently think that the continuance of President Ubico in the Presidency is a guarantee of stable, efficient, and honest Government so long as he can maintain himself in power, but they fear that the end of it all will be a dictatorship and violence to terminate it.
Rebellion or serious disorder in the near future is generally considered to be quite improbable. The Army is believed to be entirely loyal to the President, and a subversive movement without the assistance of disaffection in the armed forces could not succeed. Nevertheless, the specter of previous dictatorial governments and their tyrannies has been raised, and its psychological effect may be the deciding factor in ultimately shaping events.
Respectfully yours,