793.94/7193: Telegram
The Minister in China (Johnson) to the Secretary of State
[Received July 19—9:22 a.m.]
368. The possibility increases that an agreement may be reached by North China leaders unfriendly to National Government to form a regime to direct the affairs of the five northern provinces. It seems [Page 318] probable that this regime will be under nominal control of National Government and at the same time “cooperative” with the Japanese. Japanese military continue to visit these provinces presumably in furtherance of such a plan. A responsible local Chinese official states confidentially that the Japanese military have definitely given up the idea of an independent North China in favor of the scheme outlined above. The advantages to the Japanese military of North China regime nominally under Nanking would be, (1) they would not be going contrary to the alleged opposition of Tokyo to the creation of an independent state, (2) the establishment of such a regime could further the plans of the military for economic exploitation of North China as successfully as could an independent regime, (3) the “peacefull penetration” of North China would still leave the way open for an extension of Japanese political and economic influence in Central South China either without resistance on the part of National Government or perhaps even with its assistance, and (4) foreign governments would have less basis for criticism.
- 2.
- It is too soon to predict who might become the chief Chinese figure in such a regime. There seems to be no important figure in the five northern provinces except possibly Shang Chen who would not lend himself to the scheme if he thought that his own interests would be adequately served by participation or if he were sufficiently threatened.
- 3.
- The press reports that chairmen of the five northern provinces will meet at Peiping in the near future for discussion the agenda of which is still unknown. However, I am reliably informed that Wang Keh-min will not call the conference unless there are good prospects of agreement being reached.
To Nanking and Tokyo by mail.