765.84/3020: Telegram
The Consul at Geneva (Gilbert) to the Secretary of State
[Received 4 p.m.]
646. Consulate’s 644, December 10, 3 p.m.15 The general situation as it has developed here is marked by confusion. I encounter no valid forecast as to what may eventuate in the Committee of Eighteen. Perturbation is manifest over the possible purport of Laval-Hoare conversations augmented by press despatches such as that of Pertinax suggesting that they envisaged substantial concessions to Italy; but apart from the debate in the House of Commons nothing definite appears to be known here either of the substance or of the status of an “agreement” if such has been reached.
And the question here is also in regard to what may have transpired in Paris beyond what was brought out in the Commons debate.
Consulate’s 576, November 4, 5 p.m. final paragraph. This perturbation and uncertainty are especially in evidence among a number of small delegations including certain British Dominions. Among thoughts expressed by the smaller power delegations are that the recent Franco-British arrangements in Paris include compromises involving European political adjustments. It is also alleged by certain [persons?] who are acquainted with it that the project mentioned in [Page 702] my telegram under reference to defer the date for the application of an embargo on oil, aside from other reasons, has the intent of discouraging American action, the thought being that should the United States take action in this respect the League would be compelled to follow suit.
There are preoccupations among the small powers as to whether the economic sacrifices they have made in applying sanctions may not prove from their point of view to have been in vain. With a view to illustrating the picture here, at a luncheon today at the Turkish Minister’s at which I was present the Minister said that he could only describe the situation existing here as one of consternation and he openly stated his belief that no matter what the outcome of the general British-Italian negotiations might be that the small powers’ confidence had been so shattered that it could scarcely be recaptured. What he had to say was echoed by the Bulgarian, Finnish and Polish Ministers who were also present.
The majority of the representatives here of the small powers are apparently unaware of the plan respecting the date for the application of an embargo against Italy on oil and on the other products mentioned in my telegram under reference. The technical position which they take and which they state they will endeavor to see adopted is that the Committee of Eighteen should propose such an embargo and that at the latest the date of its application should be fixed for January 1st.
It is generally felt, however, that the small powers despite the feelings which they evidently entertain will not oppose any great power determinations respecting action here. Although it is not known what position they may take there is a lack of leadership among them and Russia is unable to assume such a role as it is apparent that she has all along wished to avoid open attribution of her activities to an anti-Fascist policy.
Whether these apprehensions of the small powers are justified or whether they will not be put at rest by later developments remains, of course to be seen. I am merely presenting the immediate picture.
Technical questions are discussed as to whether the League states will be informed concerning the Paris conversations in line with Van Zeeland’s statement reported in my 571, November 3, 3 p.m. with which Great Britain and France are supposed to have been in agreement which calls for an expose to the Coordination Committee but not however to the Committee of Eighteen. In respect of Rome’s possible acceptance of the Paris proposals either as a basis for negotiations or otherwise it is held that under the Van Zeeland statement Great Britain and France are at least under moral obligations to make their substance known to the League for its approval before their being imparted to Rome (information here is that this has definitely occurred) [Page 703] or in any event before possible Italian action creates a fait accompli.
In conversations with officials of the Secretariat they admit to me that whatever outward attitude the higher officials of the Secretariat may adopt they likewise reflect the general confusion and are unable to forecast what may eventuate.
A private meeting of the Council is scheduled for December 17 for the stated purpose of dealing with the Assyrian refugee problem. There is, however, an undercurrent of belief that the convening of the Council at this time might in reality be motivated by the possible convenience of having the Council present in Geneva for employment in the Italo-Abyssinian affair which remains technically before the Council and not before the Assembly and speculations are expressed concerning a revival of the Council Committee of Five.