894.0011/91
The Ambassador in Japan (Grew) to the Secretary of State
[Received January 29.]
Sir: In connection with my telegram No. 191 of December 23, 10 a.m.,2 reporting the birth of a son to the Empress on that day, it seems appropriate here to comment briefly on the significance of this event and to indicate to some extent its probable effect on the political life of Japan.
For some time past, as I have previously reported, there has been evident in this country a spirit of unrest and indiscipline which has affected the whole Government, and has been particularly noticeable among the younger officers of the Army and Navy. Since the outbreak of the Manchurian venture, the chauvinistic elements have been especially vocal and have openly expressed extreme dissatisfaction with social and political conditions in the country. It is only recently that some of the liberal elements in the population have dared to question the dicta of the super-patriots. Some of the animosity of dissatisfied groups has been directed against the Emperor’s entourage, which they felt was hostile to the new developments and was working against the plans of the younger military leaders. The precise degree of this animosity is difficult to estimate. There have been attempts on the life of the Lord Keeper of the Privy Seal, for example, and there have been reports, apparently credible, that the Emperor was to be deposed and another member of the Imperial Family put in his place. Such action would not be without precedent in Japanese history. Apparently the Emperor has not been personally in sympathy with much that has recently taken place in Japanese political life; the Minister of War and other leaders of the chauvinistic elements are reported to have been made to feel the Emperor’s personal [Page 632] dislike of their views, but he has consistently accepted the advice of his Ministers, so that his personal predilections (assuming a basis in truth for these reports) in no way interfered with the conduct of the Government.
This situation has not been satisfactory to those elements that have wished an alteration in the framework of the political structure. They have felt that the Emperor’s surroundings have prevented a complete acceptance by the nation of changes necessary to the “unification of the country”, although there seems to be no agreement as to what this would mean in actual practice. It was alleged that, having no son and being surrounded as he is by old men and the influence of women, it was not to be expected that the Emperor could see the needs of the country as they really are; that it was consequently desirable that some other member of the family should assume the Throne.
It will be recalled that the Chiefs of the General Staff of both the Army and Navy are Imperial Princes, and that two of the Emperor’s younger brothers are officers—Prince Chichibu in the Army and Prince Takamatsu in the Navy, while the Imperial Guards Division in Tokyo is commanded by Prince Asaka, whose consort, lately deceased, was the Emperor’s aunt. These Imperial Princes are working officers, apparently of at least average proficiency. The rumor is that some, or all, of these Princes could be induced to compel the Emperor to abdicate in favor of some one in the direct line who has had “satisfactory” training and possesses the confidence of the military hierarchy. In this connection Prince Chichibu, the Emperor’s eldest brother, has been most prominently mentioned. These rumors, so far as the Embassy is concerned, are impossible of verification or refutation. They do, however, persist, and their currency indicates that there is dissatisfaction in some quarters with the Emperor’s attitude.
The birth of a Crown Prince, however, will mean the end of intrigue or plots based on uncertainty of inheritance. The great rejoicing with which the announcement was universally greeted expressed a feeling of relief and gratification that was unmistakable. It cannot but make for political stability so far as the Imperial Court is concerned. The Emperor will gain (if such a thing is possible in Japan) in the affections of the people, and there is no doubt that the position and influence of the statesmen responsible for his marriage (of whom Count Makino, Lord Keeper of the Privy Seal, was one) will be decidedly enhanced. It will mean that for the moment at least the chances of a domestic political crisis are minimized. Some of this feeling is perhaps reflected in the little Prince’s name—Akihito (bright or clear) Tsugu no Miya.
[Page 633]In this connection, I may say that a very pleasant impression was created in Japan by the fact that the President’s telegram of congratulations to the Emperor3 appears to have been the first to be received from any chief of state. According to the press, President Roosevelt’s message was received at 2.19 p.m., that from Mr. Pu Yi at 8.12 p.m., and King George’s at 11.58 p.m., on December 23rd. A number of people have also spoken to me of the favorable reaction to my having been the first foreign chief of mission to write in the books of the Emperor and Empress. The Crown Prince was born at 6.39 a.m., the public announcement was made by two long blasts of sirens throughout the city at 7, and at 8.15 I inscribed my name at the palace. These small things appear to be noticed in Japan.
Respectfully yours,