893.01 Manchuria/1013
The Ambassador in Japan (Grew) to the Secretary of State
[Received February 24.]
Sir: As presaged in the second paragraph of my telegram No. 193 of December 23, noon,42 public announcement was made on January 20 that Mr. Pu Yi, as ordained by Heaven, would ascend the throne of the “Great Manchukuo Empire” on March 1, next, in accordance with the unanimous desire of the thirty million people of Manchuria who had already come to appreciate his wise and benevolent administration of the affairs of that country. In a statement enclosed herewith,43 [Page 30] the spokesman of the Foreign Office in Tokyo observed that the “Manchukuo” authorities had made it clear that the accession of the Chief Executive to the throne does not mean the restoration of the Manchu dynasty of the former Chinese Empire, and he emphasized the fact, mentioned to me by Mr. Hirota on December 23, that there will be no change in the frontiers of the country, so that North China will in no way be affected.
Passing over the careful stage management of the contemplated step, it is well to examine the various implications of the move and the possible future developments to which it may lead, whether or not these developments already form part of a definite Japanese program.
It is all very well to announce that there will be no changes in the frontiers of “Manchukuo”, but as a matter of fact those frontiers have never been precisely laid down and at present are in parts more or less undefined. In speaking recently to one of my diplomatic colleagues, Mr. Hirota assured him that North China need have no fear of encroachments as a result of the establishment of the Empire, but when my colleague inquired as to the frontier bordering on Outer Mongolia, which has never been clearly demarked, the Minister replied that this would be a matter for future negotiation. The Chahar salient, as I have already pointed out, constitutes a more or less literal thorn in the flesh, pointing towards the heart of “Manchukuo”, and it seems unlikely that the Japanese military authorities at least, who are responsible for the safety of that country, will be content to accept it as a permanent feature of the frontier.
In considering possible revisions of frontiers in other quarters it is well to remember that the concept of “Manifest Destiny” has become so well-rooted in Japan as to be a widely-accepted axiom. The so-called “expansionists” are merely the exponents of a relatively violent and immediate extension of Japanese control whereas many of those credited with liberal tendencies accept with equal conviction the same axiom and differ only in favoring more circumspect, less hasty or violent means of carrying it into effect. In this program of expansion it is quite certain that the eventual absorption of Mongolia within the sphere of direct Japanese influence plays an important role for political, strategic and possibly potential economic reasons. Pu Yi’s enthronement as Emperor may well be calculated to appeal to the racial sentiments of the Mongols with a view to their eventual inclusion within the new Empire.
So far as China is concerned, it should not be forgotten that Pu Yi is still the sole legitimate heir of the former sovereign line of rulers. [Page 31] The inhabitants of Manchuria have apparently accepted the “new deal” philosophically and with resignation if not with a considerable degree of contentment at their present comparatively well ordered existence. If, in future, disturbances should break out in North China through competing and conflicting factions, or for other reasons, it seems not beyond reason that incorporation within the protecting fold of the new Empire might eventually be brought about without force of arms. If such a step should ever materialize, it is not difficult to let one’s imagination run still farther afield. This phase of the problem, however, could perhaps be discussed more effectively by the Legation in China.
It seems probable that what the Japanese have in mind more immediately than the new “State’s” relation to China is its relation to the Soviets who are predominant in Outer Mongolia. Up to the present the Japanese have been unable to obtain a satisfactory acknowledgment of the status quo of Manchuria. Before taking up the specific issues between the two countries, the Soviet authorities apparently desired and have endeavored to conclude with Japan a non-aggression pact of the type which they have made with contiguous countries on their western borders, but the Japanese seem not to wish an arrangement of that kind. They seem to feel that this is putting the cart before the horse and what the Japanese Government really desires at this moment appears to be a definite settlement of outstanding questions, including a more or less formal acceptance of the present situation in Manchuria. It is possible that the Japanese would be willing to make concessions to obtain it. Such an arrangement would, of course, so far as the Soviet Government is concerned, be a return to the policy which the old Czarist Government pursued—coming to terms with Japan over Manchuria. Apparently the present authorities in Russia are loath to do this, possibly because it would be notice that a socialist state is unable to stand firm and combat the imperialistic designs of a capitalistic nation.
Until Japan and Russia come to some arrangement, however, the situation in Manchuria will continue to be dangerous. Such a settlement would facilitate a solution of the boundary problems previously referred to as well as the question of political and economic penetration into Mongolia. It is, in fact, the key to peace in those regions, as it has been in the past. Nevertheless, due to the apparent unwillingness of Japan to make any general engagement which might limit its future course of action and to the equally apparent unwillingness of Russia to settle outstanding questions upon strictly Japanese terms, there seems little common ground at the present time for negotiations leading to an effective settlement. It is not clear, however, how or to what extent the assumption of the Imperial dignity by Pu Yi will [Page 32] contribute to a Russo-Japanese rapprochement. The Japanese appear to think that it will have little or no effect so far as immediate problems are concerned, and that meanwhile the coronation of an Emperor in Manchuria is notice to the world that Chinese sovereignty of any sort whatever in that area is definitely a thing of the past.
Respectfully yours,