894.00/502: Telegram

The Ambassador in Japan ( Grew ) to the Secretary of State

15. Several radically different hypotheses are advanced in various quarters to account for the resignation yesterday of General Araki as Minister of War, none of which can yet be confirmed as accurate. His present illness has furnished the ostensible reason, and it is quite possible that this is also the actual reason because his illness deprives the Army of a representative in the coming debates in the Diet and there are doubts as to his physical ability to carry on his work for some time to come. The following factors and conjectures are, however, being advanced in various quarters.

1.
There are those who hold that the saner elements in the Government, realizing the dangerous position into which Japan is drifting, have taken advantage of Araki’s illness to insist on his removal [Page 16] as the symbol of a policy of military aggression and that as a result we may expect to see an important reorientation of policy. These elements believe that Araki was not popular with the Emperor and that with Hirota’s growing strength Araki’s position in the Cabinet had become more or less isolated. There has also been increasingly wide-spread indignation at the size of the military budget. It is said that Wakatsuki21 and Suzuki22 recently threatened embarrassing interpellations in the Diet which would have placed the Army in an unfavorable light before the public and that they agreed to refrain only on the basis of Araki’s retirement.
2.
There has been dissatisfaction among the younger officers in the Army at being hindered from promotion owing to Araki’s tendency to retain the older generals. General Hayashi, the new Minister of War, is a leader of troops rather than a staff officer and is more likely to retire the older generals and advance the younger men with whom he is popular.
3.
Hayashi is said to be of a silent disposition and is reported to have stated that Army officers should abstain from politics. It is therefore held that he is not likely to indulge in Araki’s inflammatory writings and speeches. This gives rise to a belief that his appointment represents a victory for the liberal elements in the Government and a rising influence of the political parties and that the change of ministers will have a stabilizing effect in the country.
4.
On the other hand Hayashi is said to be self-willed, impetuous and capable of rapid decisions as when he moved the troops from Korea to Manchuria on his own responsibility in 1931, in spite of Baron Shidehara’s23 protests. He is not conciliatory and is less likely than Araki to compromise. There are, therefore, those who believe that political unrest will increase and who see in his appointment a step to prepare for possible war.

My present belief is that paragraphs numbered 1, 2 and 3 probably have bearing upon the actual situation. The coming debates in the Diet may afford enlightenment.

Repeated to Peiping.

Grew
  1. Reijiro Wakatsuki, former Japanese Prime Minister and Minseito president.
  2. Dr. Hideo Suzuki, Seiyukai president.
  3. Kijuro Shidehara, Japanese Minister for Foreign Affairs in the Wakatsuki Cabinet.