793.94/5802
The Chief of the Division of Far Eastern Affairs (Hornbeck) to the Under Secretary of State (Castle) and the Secretary of State
As the situation appears now, in the Far East on the one hand and in the Occident on the other, I am inclined to believe that Chang Hsueh-liang’s estimate58 is, in so far as the “protection of China” is concerned, correct. With regard to “maintaining peace” as between China and Japan, the peace was broken on September 18, 1931 and to all intents except those of the technicalities of international law it has been in process of complete disruption ever since. There is at this moment no question of its “maintenance”, the real question being that of preserving what there is left of it (and later of restoring it). It is my opinion that, at this stage, nothing short of a threat by the world (or some two or three major powers) of intervention by the use of some form of force would offer any likely chance of preventing a substantial increase in the near future of the intensity of the hostilities which have been in progress between Japan and China during the past fifteen months.
- See supra.↩