Office of the Historian

861.77 Chinese Eastern/1176: Telegram

The Ambassador in Japan (Grew) to the Secretary of State

Tokyo, May 6, 1933—11 a.m.
[Received May 6—6:50 a.m.]

93. The Embassy has been endeavoring to ascertain the local Soviet and Japanese opinion as to the possibility that the dispute over the Chinese Eastern Railway may lead to serious consequences. The information so far obtained indicates as follows: [Page 305]

1.
The dispute was initiated by Manchukuo officials who failed to take cognizance of the fact that their actions might lead to consequences involving Japan which would be entirely unwarranted by the intrinsic value of the subject matter of the dispute.
2.
The above fact is apparently recognized by the Japanese officials. Arita, Vice Minister for Foreign Affairs is reliably reported to have stated that the dispute cannot become serious and that Muto, Japanese Ambassador to Manchukuo, has been instructed to settle the matter locally and to restrain the Manchukuo officials.
3.
The Soviet Ambassador to Tokyo is quoted to the effect that the Chinese Eastern Railway case is “only an annoying dispute” and that it cannot lead to war. He states that the Soviets will fight only if their territory is invaded, implying that they will not use force to retain control of the railway.
4.
The Foreign Office takes the position that the dispute should be settled by negotiations between the Soviets and Manchukuo, but Moscow is understood to insist that the negotiations should be between Japan and the Soviets because, as Litvinov is reported to have stated, “it is generally recognized that Manchukuo is only a puppet of Japan”. Partly to avoid this difficulty the Japanese Foreign Office now proposes a joint Soviet-Japan-Manchukuo Commission to discuss this and other pending problems.
5.
In spite of the foregoing views, some of my diplomatic colleagues regard the situation as potentially serious and believe that Soviet Russia cannot afford to allow her position and prestige to be weakened by accepting a rebuff and diplomatic defeat at the hands of Manchukuo without retaliation. I am not inclined at the present juncture to share their pessimism.

Repeated to Peiping.

Grew