894.20/115
The Chargé in France (Marriner) to the Secretary of State
[Received March 30.]
Sir: I have the honor to refer to the Embassy’s despatch No. WD 1180 of February 7, 1933, and to report as follows with respect to this matter.
In making inquiries during recent months with respect to reported efforts of Japan to borrow on the French money market, a member of the Embassy staff has profited in this respect by his acquaintance with a French authority, who happens to sit in on council meetings of the French General Staff for the purpose of advising on financial questions when international matters are under discussion.
During a conversation yesterday this man was discreetly led to indicate his understanding of the views of the General Staff with respect to the ambitions and the activities of Japan. These views may be summarized as follows: The General Staff does not expect that the present aggressive military activities of Japan will end in Jehol. This body expects Japan to pursue a policy of expansion in the Pacific, and that that country may not stop short of an attempt to take the Philippines.
As of further interest, the statement was made that the General Staff does not entertain a very high opinion of the military prowess of Japan and that, in fact, in reply to a request recently made to it by the Government for a report on the standing of Japan in this respect, the General Staff had expressed the opinion that, from a military point of view, Japan’s lack of modern military science (in this respect, this body appears to consider that Japan still clings to almost feudal conceptions), military material, and capital, would not permit her, with any reasonable chances of success, to engage in a war with any first-class European power, or with the United States.
Respectfully yours,