761.94/595
The Ambassador in Japan (Grew) to the Secretary of State
[Received March 25.]
Sir: I desire to refer to my despatches Nos. 256, of January 13, 1933, and 267, of January 26, 1933,52 in which it was pointed out that Japan-Soviet relations prior to December, 1932, had been growing increasingly cordial; that it had seemed probable that a non-aggression pact between the two countries would be concluded before the end of the year 1932; that various events in December, 1932, chief among which was the Sino-Soviet rapprochement, had again disturbed relations between Japan and the Soviets; and that it now seemed improbable that a non-aggression pact would be concluded in the near future.
The Embassy recently received certain information from a reliable Soviet source regarding Japanese relations with the United States and with the Soviets, which, while it does not add much to what the Embassy already knew or suspected, does tend to confirm the impressions which the Embassy had received regarding those relations. The following is a brief summary of the remarks of the Embassy’s informant: [Page 229]
“The Japanese Foreign Office and many Japanese business leaders wish to conclude a Japan-Soviet non-aggression pact, but the Japanese Army, still cherishing its delusions of grandeur, continues to block any moves which may restrict its freedom of action. At the same time, however, Japanese officialdom is afraid of a rapprochement between the United States and the Soviets, and is anxiously awaiting the announcement of President Roosevelt regarding his policy toward the Far Eastern situation and toward the Soviets. In the meantime Japan is frantically preparing for war on a large scale, with munitions, airplane and automobile factories working overtime. As the Japanese do not expect much opposition from the Chinese in Jehol or North China, the preparations are obviously for a war with the Soviets, with the United States, or with both. Japan is also making preparations to fortify the Kurile Islands, the Bonin Islands, and the Japanese Mandated Islands in the South Seas. It is expected that all preparations will be completed by the time that the restrictions on such fortifications contained in the Naval Limitation Treaty of 192253 expire in 1936. (The informant is in error in assuming that fortifications in the Japanese Mandated Islands are restricted by the terms of the Naval Limitation Treaty. Such fortifications are prohibited in perpetuity by the terms of the Mandate. For rumors regarding such fortifications see my despatch No. 296, of February 21, 1933.54) The fortification of the Bonin and Mandated Islands is directed against the United States.
“The Soviet Union has an army of 150,000 men in Siberia east of Chita, with headquarters at Habarovsk. This army is somewhat handicapped by the limitations of the single-track railway through Siberia, but to offset this handicap, has large supplies of foodstuffs and ammunition stored in various places in Siberia. The cavalry of the Soviet Army is superior to that of the Japanese, while the Army as a whole is further mechanized than is the Japanese Army. The Japanese realize this and are working hard to bring their cavalry and mechanization up to the Russian standard. The Japanese Army is also working hard on equipment for chemical warfare and is now prepared to wage chemical warfare on a small scale. In case of an American-Russian-Chinese war against Japan, the Chinese would be of little military value but they would be very useful as allies, as they would harass the Japanese on the flank and in the rear. The Soviets are behind in their industrialization program and do not want war at the present time.
“When the Japanese complete their scheme for a Manchurian railway system, the Chinese Eastern Railway will become of little value. Consequently the Soviets are now negotiating with ‘Manchukuo’ for the sale of the Harbin-Changchun section of the line. The Man-chuli-Harbin and Harbin-Pogranichnaya sections would be useful to the South Manchuria Railway as feeder lines and it is possible that negotiations will be conducted in the future for the sale of these sections also.
“The Soviet Union badly needs the resumption of diplomatic relations with the United States. It is able, but cannot agree, to repay [Page 230] the old Russian debts owing to American citizens, because to repay one set of debts would make it necessary to repay all. In order to obtain American recognition the Soviets are willing to give economic favors and to grant concessions in return for the cancellation of the old debts.”
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Respectfully yours,
- Latter not printed.↩
- Signed at Washington, February 6, 1922, Foreign Relations, 1922, vol. i, p. 247.↩
- Post, p. 750.↩