724.3415/2613: Telegram
The Minister in Paraguay (Wheeler) to the Secretary of State
[Received December 12—9:20 a.m.]
171. Your telegram No. 57, December 10, 3 p.m. In all my conversations with the President I have stressed the point of the automatic procedure of the arbitration once it has been agreed upon together with the fact that the agreement itself would provide that it would be wholly without prejudice to the juridical position and rights of either party thereto.
I have just left him after an extended conversation. I regret to say that he maintains without qualification his position that acceptance of the Ballivián–Vitriones line would leave Paraguay out of the Chaco and Bolivia in the center of it, in possession of from 20 to 25 fortines and free to consolidate her position for another push. He [said?] to me “If I went before the people with such a proposal I would not be able to remain in the Palace 24 hours”. Judging by the temper of the people generally, the press and the military party, I am of the opinion that he does not greatly exaggerate. He is convinced, I believe beyond persuasion, that Bolivia will never agree on bases for an arbitration so long as she retains her hold on the Chaco and that only when both sides are out of it can such bases be agreed upon.
He has personally no illusions as to Paraguay’s resources and foresees her probable desperate situation at the end of a year. At present, however, he considers that she has a temporary equality with Bolivia and must use this time in an effort to gain security and free herself from the menace of continued war. I have reason to know that Colonel Schweizer, head of the former Argentine military mission here and now Argentine Military Attaché, has counselled this policy though he did not inspire it as Ayala’s objection is intense to the League’s taking any part in the affair at present87 and he still retains a slender hope that the neutrals may yet draw into their group Argentina, Brazil and Chile.