894.002/193
The Chargé in Japan (Neville) to the Secretary of State
[Received June 18.]
Sir: I have the honor to report that there is a large measure of opinion among the Japanese that the newly formed Saito Cabinet is [Page 692] merely a stop-gap Cabinet which will neither meet the urgent needs of the country nor have a long term of office.
Factors in the Formation of the Cabinet.
After the assassination of former Premier Inukai by a group of young Army and Navy officers, it was generally reported that any Cabinet which would be formed would have to be acceptable to the Army. The radical younger group in the Army desires elimination of corrupt party politics, lessening or abolition of the influence in government of the great financial interests, reform of economic policies in favor of the masses, and a stronger policy toward China, regardless of the opinion of the world. This group, which it is believed is working toward a military dictatorship—a revival of the Shogunate—insisted upon a super-party Cabinet, to tide the nation over the present financial and political crisis. At the same time, the political parties, supported by Prince Saionji, who is a staunch upholder of constitutional government, insisted that a Cabinet be formed somewhat along constitutional lines, with members from the leading political groups. The public was interested principally in the formation of a Cabinet which would make some positive move toward alleviation of the economic distress, which would quiet the social unrest, and which would make an attempt to eliminate political corruption. These various factors resulted in the formation of the Saito Cabinet, a compromise Cabinet more or less acceptable to all parties but completely fulfilling the wishes of none.
Composition of the Cabinet.
The Premier and Foreign Minister pro tern, Admiral Viscount Makoto Saito, is a commoner by birth, a naval officer by profession and a statesman and administrator by choice. He became known to the world through his very able administration of Korea after the passive rebellion there in 1919. He has no outstanding capabilities, but he is affable, easy-going and inclined to compromise. He is noted for his integrity and is described as being “unable to do anything badly”. He is affiliated with no political party, but for years has been one of the non-partisan political leaders of the country. He was acceptable to the Army group because of his lack of affiliation with the political parties and because of his supposed amenability to the demands of the Army group.
The Finance Minister, Mr. Korekiyo Takahashi, was taken over into the present Cabinet from the previous Inukai Cabinet, largely in order that he might carry out the financial policies which he had inaugurated and which it was thought advisable to continue. He is a man of considerable experience both in finance and in politics, having served for years in governmental banks and having been Finance [Page 693] Minister twice. Although a Seiyukai man (President ad interim once), he is distinctly not a party man, is independent and fearless in thought, and is inclined to place the nation’s interests above the party’s interests. Hence he was acceptable to those endeavoring to form a national or super-party Cabinet.
The Home Minister, Baron Tatsuo Yamamoto, is a public man and financier of long experience. He served for years in governmental banks, rising to the highest positions, and served one term as Finance Minister and twice as Minister of Agriculture and Forestry. He was originally a member of the Seiyukai but on a split in that party he became a member of the Minseito, where he has been acting as adviser. He is not a strong party man and is said to have more friends in the Seiyukai than in the Minseito. He retired from active public life some ten years ago and was reluctant to join the Saito Cabinet. He was persuaded, however, on the ground that a super-party Cabinet could not be formed without his help and that it was imperative to form a Cabinet as soon as possible to avoid the possible collapse of parliamentary government in Japan.
The Minister of War, Lieutenant-General Sadao Araki, is a man who has come into the public eye in the last few months. He is the enigma, and threatens to be the storm-center, of the present Cabinet. He is of samurai blood and an Army officer by profession. After working up to the higher grades of his service, he became Minister of War in the Inukai Cabinet. He is a member of the Kokuhonsha, a somewhat radical and at the same time intensely nationalistic party which includes the younger Army group. While Minister of War in the Inukai Cabinet and campaigning for the Kokuhonsha, he made certain remarkably frank speeches regarding Japan’s intentions in Manchuria. When Premier Inukai was assassinated by a group of young Army officers, General Araki, in accordance with Japanese custom, accepted responsibility and resigned. Later, when the Saito Cabinet was being formed, he reconsidered his resignation and remained in the new Cabinet. This action was unusual in view of the Japanese conception of proper conduct in such cases, and he is being severely criticized throughout the country. In reply to the criticism, he intimates that he has certain duties which he must perform, despite all criticism, and compares himself with the forty-seven ronin, who led degraded lives and braved adverse criticism in order eventually to attain their purpose. He does not explain the end to which he is working. He is probably the strongest man in the Cabinet, and as the representative of the young Army group, may be in a position to dictate the policies of the Cabinet.
These four (Saito, Takahashi, Yamamoto and Araki) are the outstanding [Page 694] men of the Cabinet. The others are lieutenants of the leaders or representatives of parties or departments.
The Minister of the Navy, Admiral Keisuke Okada, is a man of considerable administrative ability but of no special characteristics. He served as Minister of the Navy once before, in 1927, in the Tanaka Cabinet.
The Minister of Commerce and Industry, Baron Kumakichi Nakajima, is a peer by birth. He has had some experience in business, having been an official in various banks and steamship, electric, trust and insurance companies. He is a member of the House of Peers and of the Koseikai (an influential group in the House of Peers), whom he represents in the Cabinet.
The Minister of Communications, Mr. Hiroshi Minami, is a member of the Seiyukai and has held various offices, including that of Governor General of Formosa, under Seiyukai Cabinets. He is a strong party man and is one of the representatives of the Seiyukai in the Saito Cabinet.
The Minister of Railways, Mr. Chuzo Mitsuchi, is a member of the Seiyukai, but he is not a strong party man and is rather a lieutenant of Mr. Takahashi, the Finance Minister, than a representative of the Seiyukai. He has long been a member of the Lower House and has twice before held Cabinet positions, as Minister of Education in 1927 and as Finance Minister in 1929.
The Minister of Agriculture and Forestry, Mr. Fumio Goto, is a lieutenant of Baron Yamamoto, the Home Minister, who insisted, as a condition to his own participation in the Cabinet, upon the appointment of Goto as a Minister or Vice Minister. He is a member of the Minseito but is not a strong party man. He has been in government service since 1908, in various subordinate positions.
The Minister of Education, Mr. Ichiro Hatoyama, was carried over from the Inukai Cabinet, where he held the same portfolio. He is a member of the Seiyukai, a strong party man and a lieutenant of Dr. Suzuki, the President of the Seiyukai. He has been a politician since his graduation from law school and has been repeatedly elected to the Lower House.
The Minister of Justice, Mr. Matsukichi Koyama, is a prominent jurist who has served as procurator and judge in various courts in Japan since 1894. Before appointment to a Cabinet position he was Procurator General and Dean of Hosei University (a law school). He has no party affiliations.
The Overseas Minister, Mr. Ryutaro Nagai, is a member of the Minseito, has been elected to the Lower House several times on that ticket, has served as Parliamentary Vice Minister for Foreign Affairs and at the time of his appointment to the Cabinet was Chief Secretary [Page 695] of the Minseito. He is a strong party man, and is regarded in some quarters as likely to be a factor of importance in political life in Japan.
The Saito Cabinet is thus composed of four members of the Seiyukai, three of the Minseito and one of the Peers, with four independents. Most of the party men, however, are not strong party men, and the Cabinet would appear to be in fact a super-party Cabinet, dominated by General Araki.
Reaction to the New Cabinet.
The general reaction among the Japanese to the new Cabinet is one of disappointment. It was expected that, with the many grave issues facing the nation, a very strong Cabinet composed of the leading statesmen of the nation, regardless of class or party affiliations, would be formed. Instead, a Cabinet containing four men of fairly high calibre and eight men of mediocre attainments has been presented to the nation. The newspaper editorials do not indicate any considerable enthusiasm over the new Cabinet. Financial circles are disappointed, as they know from past experience that Takahashi will be disinclined to take strong positive measure for relief of the financial situation. The Seiyukai, which controls the Lower House at present, does not give any indication of wholehearted support of the Cabinet and may make trouble in the Diet. The Army circles are non-committal but threaten to make trouble if the Cabinet proves to be amenable to the dictates of the political parties rather than to those of the Army.
Problems before the Saito Cabinet.
The Saito Cabinet faces the largest group of urgent problems faced by any Cabinet in recent years. Among the domestic problems the most important is the social and agrarian unrest. The people of Japan have been disillusioned in regard to parliamentary government, there has been a steady decline of discipline in the Army, Navy and the schools, and the economic depression and increasing unemployment have intensified the discontent. The reactionary or extreme nationalist movement has a curious tendency to combine, in thought at least, with the extreme left or radical movement, and to favor the abolition of large private fortunes with their tendency to corrupt the government, and to favor a wider distribution of wealth among the masses. The basic cause of the unrest is the tremendous growth in power and influence of such family groups as the Mitsuis, the Iwasakis and the Sumitomos, with their tendency to absorb the wealth of the nation and to control, allegedly by corrupt practices, the various branches of the Government. The Army resents the growth of this money power and wishes to revert to the feudal days, or even to those of the Meiji era, when the economic policies of the country were not controlled by the mercantile class. In this movement they have the [Page 696] backing of all reactionary groups and of the radical element among the farmers, who are hard pressed at present by the economic depression. It seems unlikely that any Cabinet which could be formed would be able to do much to correct the basic causes of the unrest, especially as the depression is not confined to Japan but is world-wide.
Another important domestic problem is that of national finance. Japan, like many other countries, is unable to balance its budget and must resort to loans. There is also a strong movement toward currency inflation, in order to depreciate the yen, relieve the credit situation, and decrease the value of the enormous debts with which the farmers, industrialists, merchants and shipping companies are burdened.
A third important domestic problem which is to some extent included in the first, consists of the purification of politics. The people of the country have lost all confidence in and respect for political parties and reforms must be instituted if the parliamentary system is to regain its lost prestige.
In foreign affairs, the Cabinet must meet, within a short time, the report of the Commission of the League on the Manchurian question. A conviction is gaining ground in Japan that the report of the Commission will not meet Japan’s wishes and that it will be necessary to decide whether or not definitely to defy the League and the Powers which will support the League. Relations with the Soviets are also somewhat strained and it may be necessary to decide upon the attitude which will be taken in regard to this question. It is presumed that in both of these questions, the opinion of the Army group, as represented by General Araki, will to a large extent prevail.
Within the Cabinet itself there may be disunion, as the Premier will have to reconcile the views of Ministers of the different political factions. The Minseito has promised its support to the Cabinet, but the Seiyukai, which controls a clear majority in the Lower House, has not indicated any desire to give its whole-hearted support to the new Cabinet. Within a day of the inauguration of the Cabinet, dissension between the members representing the political parties over the distribution of the appointments of vice-ministers had arisen.
Face to face with these numerous and pressing problems, some of which seem incapable of any immediate solution, it appears unlikely that the Saito Cabinet will be able to maintain itself.
Respectfully yours,