793.94/4511: Telegram
The Minister in China (Johnson) to the Secretary of State
[Received March 1—9:30 a.m.]
293. 1. North China remains quiet. I am very reliably informed that the Chinese plan is to exhaust the Japanese in the Shanghai area and to give them no pretext for intervention in this vicinity. This policy is based on the knowledge that the Japanese have very complete military plans for the occupation of North China which they could execute with comparative ease whereas there are no such detailed arrangements for the occupation of the Yangtze Basin. At the same time dispositions of Chinese troops have been made with a view to resistance in case the Japanese take the initiative.
[Page 487]2. If this information is correct there would seem small likelihood of any Chinese military activity in the direction of Manchuria at the present time especially in view of the shortage of munitions in Marshal Chang’s forces. The action of the Chinese Government toward the independence movement in Manchuria will perhaps be limited to a manifesto, which, by declaring the existence there of a state of rebellion, will serve to prevent the case at this time from going by default and to lay a basis for any action thought advisable at a later date.
Repeated to the Minister.