837.00/2922: Telegram
The Ambassador in Cuba (Guggenheim) to the Secretary of State
[Received 8:47 p.m.]
164. I have analyzed the present critical situation in Cuba as follows. The Opposition, realizing the depleted condition of the Treasury and taking advantage of the general poverty, has successfully renewed campaign to keep the country in a state of constant alarm without actual revolution and to interference with the operation of Government and business. As a result there exists an almost universal dissatisfaction with the Government and the funds in the Treasury have been reduced to a point of dangerous exhaustion.
The basic cause of the revolutionary sentiment is poverty, especially in the cities. The immediate occasion is found in the indignant idealism of the students. The leaders of the Opposition here cleverly organized the students into a movement for political purification, the sincerity of which is rendered doubtful by the past records of the leaders who have themselves practiced what they condemn. Under the [Page 679] cloak of student protests, all factions opposed to the Government including the Communists and the unemployed are supporting the street demonstrations which have been temporarily halted by the suspension of the constitutional guarantees.
Among possible developments are these:
- (1)
- President Machado’s immediate resignation. This would probably be followed by a chaotic condition for an undetermined period.
- (2)
- A coup d’état by the Opposition. In view of the political rivalry and the lack of solidarity among President Machado’s opponents, this would probably also lead to a chaotic state of affairs. At present the Army is loyal to President Machado.
- (3)
- An unsuccessful attempt at a coup d’état which might end in the destruction of the Opposition.
- (4)
- If President Machado can maintain order through the next two months of the suspension of the constitutional guarantees, and if there should be an immediate rise in the price of sugar with general improvement in economic conditions, it might result in the return of President Machado to a state of reasonable prestige. This is highly improbable though possible.
- (5)
- The development of a constitutional plan for a change in the Government involving President Machado’s resignation within a reasonable time; the appointment of a Provisional President; the righting of the wrongs of the last constitutional convention to be followed by a general election after the census has been taken and the parties reorganized. While this would satisfy all of the reputed aspirations of the Opposition, yet their real desire probably is a coup d’état and an immediate chance at their turn at government. By setting them against each other, President Machado might successfully appeal over their heads to the people in support of this plan. But the difficulties would be very great.
The impoverished state of the Treasury and the constant diminution of revenues makes any form of government extremely difficult.