837.00/2838
The Chargé in Cuba (Reed) to the Secretary of State
[Received September 26.]
Sir: I have the honor to submit the following report on recent political developments in Cuba:
While continuing without respite their attacks on the constitutionality and conduct of the Machado administration, the Nacionalistas have, during the last fortnight, concentrated their efforts on one point in their program, namely, the necessity of postponing the November elections until such time as the electoral reform which they consider essential can be put into effect. They appear to have gained several important adherents to this view, chiefly from the Conservative Party. Ex-President Menocal, himself, has emerged from his political retirement with the avowed purpose of mediating between the Government and the Opposition and he is understood to advocate the postponement of the elections, although he has thus far failed to make his promised public declaration regarding his position and his views.
General Menocal’s return to the political stage has aroused more speculation and conjecture than anything that has happened here recently. The Nacionalistas are trying to use him for their own purposes in the hope that if they can persuade him to declare publicly that the elections should be postponed, the Conservative Party will follow him into a joint opposition with the Nacionalistas. Other Conservative leaders are, however, unwilling to see their chief manoeuvered into such a position and are generally believed to be at their wits’ end to find some way of extricating the former President from the rather delicate situation into which his failure as a mediator and his supposed advocacy of delayed elections have placed him.
[Page 657]Furthermore, Menocal’s renewed political activity is interpreted as indicating his desire to succeed to the Presidency in 1935, or earlier, if President Machado can be induced to resign. It has even been suggested in certain quarters that Machado should appoint Menocal Secretary of State and then retire from office, leaving the latter at the head of the Government as provisional President. Although little importance need be attributed to such propositions at the present time, Menocal’s professed disinterestedness in trying to discover a solution of existing political differences is open to serious doubt and the probabilities are that he sees an opportunity of deriving some personal advantage from the unrest and discontent that now prevail in Cuba.
That such unrest and discontent exist is undeniable and the resultant political situation naturally lends itself to exploitation by any strong politician whether he be unprincipled or not. Up to the present Menocal and Mendieta are the only persons who have the necessary following to enable them seriously to embarrass the Government, … Together, however, they might represent a danger to Machado’s administration and it is my opinion that the President will find means to keep them from uniting.…
The difficulties of the political situation are increased by the ill considered and exaggerated publicity given in the United States to minor events in Cuba and by the declarations of returning visitors who, after remaining in Habana for a few days and listening only to the complaints of persons hostile to the Government, appear to regard themselves as qualified to predict dire results unless the United States Government takes a hand in Cuban domestic affairs. Such publicity and such statements only serve to exasperate the Cuban authorities and to encourage the Government’s enemies to look to the United States for assistance in turning out President Machado. The Nacionalistas neither expect nor desire American intervention in the sense of a temporary occupation, but they realize only too well that if the American Government could be induced to demand that President Machado adopt any given course of action such, for instance, as a postponement of the elections, he would be ruined politically whether he acquiesced or not.
President Machado’s own views on the political situation, as expressed to me recently on two occasions, are that the present tension is merely the logical concomitant of Cuba’s economic depression. He professes not to be seriously concerned by the activities of his adversaries and hopes to be able to satisfy their legitimate demands for political reform after the elections which, he intends, shall be held regardless of all opposition.
There is so much truth in the assertion that the country’s political discontent is attributable in large measure to its economic ills that [Page 658] discussion of the point seems unnecessary. I may say, however, that in every conversation I have; had with Cubans and Americans who are opposed to the Machado administration I have asked the following question: “If sugar were selling at 3 cents a pound, would the present political agitation continue?”; and the answer has invariably been: “No.”
In spite of the President’s professed lack of serious concern over the political situation, there is abundant indication that he is not disposed to under-estimate the strength of the opposition. During the last ten days he has visited Pinar del Rio and Santa Clara where he was the object of what appear to have been carefully arranged ovations on the part of the military forces stationed in those provinces. This week he will attend a similar function at Matanzas and in the near future he is to be the guest of a monster banquet at Camp Columbia in which it is reported that enlisted men to the number of 3,000 will participate. This injection of politics into the military establishments has drawn the fire of the Nacionalistas who contend that it is illegal for the army to have anything to do with political matters, but the President has lent a deaf ear to their protests and can be expected to make the most of these opportunities to demonstrate the army’s loyalty to him and to his Administration.
A cause of possible trouble to the Government has been temporarily eliminated through the action of the authorities of the National University of Habana in postponing the annual opening of that institution until after the elections. The Government places responsibility for this decision on the Rector of the University, but no one can be expected to believe that it was not taken after consultation with the public authorities. As explained to me by one of the President’s closest political friends, it had been ascertained that the students were planning to turn the opening ceremonies into an anti-Government demonstration and the Government considered it desirable to avoid any possibility of disorders.
The Government’s attitude toward the press is not always consistent and it appears that a new system of harassing anti-Administration publishers is being developed which involves delaying the transmission of press telegrams from the interior and raids by the police on the plants of offending journals, for which acts the police officer in charge of the raiding party assumes all the blame, while the Government refuses to accept any responsibility and insists outwardly at least on conformity with the legal procedure. This is what occurred in the case of the seizure of the comic weekly Karikato which apparently has attracted widespread attention in the United States.
In conclusion, I may express the opinion that the Government is strong enough to cope with its enemies and will be able to hold the elections in November without encountering serious opposition. The [Page 659] elections will be held and so far as they go, will, I believe, be conducted as fairly as any preceding elections in Cuba. The only persons interested in their results are the candidates and their immediate supporters. The Liberals will win in every province excepting perhaps in Pinar del Rio; the Conservatives will finish a poor second; the Populars will elect a senator or two and a handful of representatives and the Nacionalistas, whose strength cannot be estimated although they are certainly as numerous as the Conservatives, will, of course, have to wait until 1932 before they can vote for candidates of their own, provided always the President keeps his promises regarding electoral reforms.
Respectfully yours,