500.A15a3/825a: Telegram
The Acting Secretary of State to the Chairman of the American Delegation (Stimson)
300. The press despatches lead us to believe that a three-power pact is the inevitable conclusion, in view of the improbability of finding a basis between the French and Italians or even the French and British. If the British are prepared to come along on the Rapidan figures and your subsequent battleship arrangements, we think that a three-power pact will be regarded as a distinct victory, and a reasonable political clause protecting the signatories in case of menacing construction will not be regarded as out of line.
A five-power pact, of course, is what we would all prefer but we are of the opinion that we run some danger in extending negotiations, for the failure of the five-power treaty is at present clearly upon the French and Italians but they might turn the tables by making such demands on the United States as would appear to place upon us the responsibility. Moreover the five-power treaty with consultative provision stronger than that which we telegraphed might cause breakdown of the Conference if demands were made for more teeth in the consultative pact than we could secure agreement for. I am sure it would create great opposition here if it were made stronger than that which we telegraphed.18