893.00/6681: Telegram
The Minister in China (MacMurray) to the Secretary of State
Peking, October 17,
1925—5 p.m.
[Received October 17—2:10 p.m.]
[Received October 17—2:10 p.m.]
448. My telegram number 445, October 16, 5 p.m.33
- 1.
- Although no overt acts of hostility have yet been reported, there has come to exist a situation of great tensity between the [Page 615] forces of Chang Tso-lin in Kiangsu and the Chekiang forces under Sun Chuan-fang who is believed to be acting upon an understanding with Feng Yu-hsiang and Wu Pei-fu for the purpose of driving Chang back into Manchuria and eliminating him from the coalition which has been supporting Tuan Chi-jui in power here. It is possible that Sun is seeking merely to increase area of his individual power and will be content with obtaining possession of Shanghai. If, however, he actually brings on a conflict with Chang forces it will apparently indicate that Wu has aligned himself with Feng for the purpose of obtaining definite control over Central Government to the exclusion of Chang and forestalling the possibility that Tuan might intrench himself in power as a consequence of increased revenues to be derived from the results of Customs Conference.34
- 2.
- Should that prove to be the case it seems likely that the whole of North China will be involved in a new civil war between Feng and Chang with the possession of Peking as the principal objective. It is only possible to conjecture the course of such a struggle; but it would seem that Feng is in stronger position to obtain control of the Capital and of such authority as still rests with Central Government. It seems likely that in that case he would eliminate Tuan. It is possible that, if the new administration established by him were to be recognized by the powers, Feng would ask the Tariff Conference to stop; but it is at least equally probable that Feng who is strongly under Soviet influences and beholden to them for the very large quantities of arms and ammunition with which he has recently been able to supply his armies would refuse to have anything to do with the conference and would emulate Turkish example of baldly denouncing so-called unequal treaties.
- 3.
- Should Feng accomplish his purpose against Chang, there is, nevertheless, prospect that the coalition between him and Wu would break down as it is based only upon an immediate community of interest in restricting Chang to Manchuria, and is understood not to involve any reconciliation of antagonism created by Feng’s treachery towards Wu a year ago.
- 4.
- I report these somewhat speculative matters merely in order that you may be prepared to envisage the possibilities in the event that a new situation is suddenly created by hostilities in the neighborhood of Shanghai.
MacMurray