Paris Peace Conf. 184.011102/168
Mr. Albert Halstead to the Commission to Negotiate Peace
[Received July 21.]
Subject: The problem of the new states.
Sirs: I have the honor to report that I feel it my duty to discuss the future of German-Austria with regard to her relations with the states cut out of the old Austro-Hungarian Empire even if by so doing, I cover old ground.
The study of the situation of German-Austria, Jugo-Slavia, and Hungary, which I have sought solely from the point of view of the best and the real interests of all nations concerned, has convinced me that the future peace of this portion of Europe depends wholly upon cordial and close relations between all these states. A settlement of problems without such cordial relations, but with jealousies, excessive ambitions, and old bitterness permitted full sway can give no peace of permanent character. German-Austria and Hungary will find the greatest difficulty, even under the most favorable circumstances, to readjust their lives to the new order. Czecho-Slovakia, Jugo-Slavia, and Poland will be fully occupied in proving their capacity for self-government. Each of the two former states will have difficulties in consolidating its different races into a compact state, while Poland, though of one race, will be confronted with the problem of adjusting the varying views of its three sections which formerly were parts of Austria, Germany and Russia. Roumania will have her problem of digesting the large population that has been lately added.
Again each of the five states must adapt itself to the new economic order and must solve the problems which the war and Bolshevism have made so acute. Each must find some means to compromise the striking differences that exist between the extreme radicals and the ultra conservatives.
This work alone is more than sufficient to test the political wisdom of their statesmen, and it is more difficult in that practically every one of the new states will have had no experience in actual self-government. In these circumstances rivalry and bitterness and the cultivation of extreme ambitions must check interior development and embarrass [Page 546] good government. As regards their outer politics each state’s foremost interest is that of friendly and sympathetic relations with its neighbors.
At the present moment bitterness, ambition and hatred as well as disappointment appear to be the moving forces in each one of the countries. It is too early for German-Austria and Hungary to accept calmly the loss of territory and too early for the other states to have lost that feeling of triumph which blinds them to their real interests.
Unless the peace treaty, now being drafted, provides some means to impose some check upon distinctly selfish ambitions it will be impossible thereafter to overcome the hostility that threatens to become permanent.
The League of Nations will require considerable period for organization during which time bitterness and hostility in the attitude of one nation for another is apt to become so firmly planted as to make the work of the League in adjusting differences and producing harmony much more difficult. In the meantime the League must gain greater influence and authority. It must be noted that in this section of the world the Peace Conference has lost most of its prestige chiefly because the Hungarian situation has not been solved. It has been remarked that if the conference of great powers with all their military forces has not enforced its will in Hungary and elsewhere it would seem as if the League of Nations would be confronted by a similar or greater difficulty. It is suggested that some time may be required to overcome this feeling.
I trust that I may be permitted to again point out the grave danger that confronts the peace of this section of the world and threatens the stability of some of the new nations. With Jugo-Slavia one finds the menace of Italy. The hostile feelings that are known to exist between the Italians on the one hand and the Jugo-Slavs on the other are such as to justify at least the apprehension that these two nations will clash. Jugo-Slavia is confronted with racial problems because there is no real feeling of interest between the races. Then some of the races fought the Serb during the war and the Serbians are reported to desire to exert an overwhelming influence in the state. Therefore, the internal difficulties of Jugo-Slavia should not be minimized.
The other great danger lies in German-Austria and amongst the German-Bohemians, each feeling that friendliness to Germany, which is due to the similarity of language and the call of race. German-Austria alone knows she is impotent and the German-Bohemians are unwilling members of the Czecho-Slovak state. Both are apprehensive as to the treatment from the more numerous Czechs and Slovaks. The union of the Czechs and Slovaks because of the difference in race is not a natural combination. With this lack of cohesiveness it would appear to be more important that the German-Bohemians [Page 547] should be accorded considerate treatment and equality of opportunity and be at the same time protected from hostile legislation at the hands of the majority. The interests of the Czecho-Slovaks and the German-Bohemians are in most respects identical. Joined together historically, both manufacturing sections with commercial ties they could be fused into one united state by statesmenlike policies and real interests, if concessions were made on each side. Without such concessions it will be only natural if the German-Bohemians, embittered through a union with a race that they regard inferior should from this sense of unfair treatment lean toward Germany and plot in the interest of that nation.
The trend toward Germany of the German-Austrians will be the greater if Czecho-Slovakia pursues her present ambitions and seeks to take from Vienna the former commercial supremacy of that city, if she furnishes coal and sugar only grudgingly, insists upon preferential treatment and in general blocks the way toward the rehabilitation of this nation. The influence of pride must not be overlooked. With the best peace possible a small country disappointed from its fall from power must be sensitive and dissatisfied.
There are indications of German plans to bring about closer relations with German-Austria. The farewell remarks of Baron Wedel, the former ambassador were calculated to indicate that German-Austria could lean on Germany, particularly wherein he indicated that it would be his task to have Germany make sacrifices so that Austria could secure the things she needs. The Social Democrats who remember that the provinces are not strong for Social Democracy, desire a union or closer relations with Germany to strengthen their party. Tyrol feels that she has lost so much to Italy that she is practically destroyed. Vorarlberg looks to Switzerland. These weak states naturally look to the Germans with their high birth rate and pride still undestroyed, with old ambitions fostered and with a possibility of rapid rehabilitation. Despite prohibition of such a union the desire will grow if not counter-acted by making it apparent that the interests of the German-Bohemians are with Czecho-Slovakia and making it possible for German-Austria to continue commercial relations with Czecho-Slovakia and for Jugo-Slavia to continue to be a market for the manufacturers of this country. Political alliances may change. Italy’s ambitions might make an understanding with Germany easy. This with other developments may bring the League of Nations to favor a union of the German peoples. That would mean a great menace to Czecho-Slovakia and a threat to the other new states.
Vienna is the nerve centre of the old empire. It is the historical center. It has the geographic position, it is the seat of music, medicine, art, education and other cultures. It is not regarded as really [Page 548] German by the provinces, and has many other elements in its makeup. The commercial lines were established under the old empire, and these were then satisfactory notwithstanding hatred of the so-called Austrian rule in those parts of the empire which have now been separated. Without these commercial lines, without financial connections with the states of the old empire, without raw material and food from the other states no peace can come to German-Austria.
The political situation in German-Austria looks brighter despite the continued activity of the communists and the general strike to occur on the 21st, and prospects of good order increase. Dr. Bauer, the strongest person in the government, has been charged with communistic leanings. The ultra conservatives insist that he is a communist whereas in fact he appears to be theoretically so radical as to approach nearer to communism [bolshevism?]. However, he seems to see that the existing order cannot be overthrown and improved through force and that no civilization can be built on the foundation of destruction. He, therefore, works for reform in an orderly way. The workmen’s council still stands in German-Austria as a great power, but the councils of the peasants are increasing in influence and the citizens’ council may grow into usefulness. The Bolshevist danger is not so great notwithstanding the continued spread of Bolshevist propaganda. The amendments in the peace treaty are considered encouraging. There are indications of a greater confidence and of an impetus toward reconstruction. Inquiries for food and raw material are more numerous. All this is hopeful, but the outlook for the winter, especially the desperate want of coal, is discouraging.
I have [etc.]