Paris Peace Conf. 184.01102/411
Professor A. C.
Coolidge to the Commission to
Negotiate Peace
No. 248
Vienna, April 25, 1919.
[Received April
28.]
Sirs: I have the honor to enclose herewith
a report from Professor Brown, as made out by Capt. C. A. Scully and
Lieut. W. H. Osborn,
[Page 443]
who
arrived here this morning from Budapest; and also another report by
Lieut. Osborn representing Professor Brown’s views.
Owing to the precarious nature of the general situation, it has
seemed better that not even the courier should carry with him
written material that must not fall into the hands of the
authorities in Budapest. Instead, he is given full oral
instructions, which he then prepares in the form of a memorandum
after he has seen me in Vienna. Professor Brown’s reports thus made
are full of interest. He is evidently doing work of much value. I
have no doubt that his presence exercises a restraining influence on
the bolshevik government, and that it has prevented excesses that
might otherwise have taken place.
He deserves the highest credit for what he is accomplishing even
though I must admit I should feel more confident of the extent of
the government’s good behavior if it did not rest so far chiefly on
their own testimony.
I wish also that I felt quite sure that the movement of public
opinion in Hungary is at present towards the right. This may be the
case, but Secretary Bauer, who is really intelligent and is in a
position to be well informed, told me yesterday that although he
believed the communistic, government of Hungary might fall in six
months owing to the economic impossibility of its system, for the
present it could maintain itself unless attacked from outside. He
said that there were no materials there just now on which a reaction
could be based; that he had recently talked with Minister Böhm, an
old friend of his, who declared to him that the masses were more
radical than their leaders, and would have made the revolution
without them if necessary. Secretary Bauer added that he thought if
there was any change it would be to the left rather than to the
right.
It is evident that the bolshevist leaders at Budapest are thoroughly
frightened at the prospect of an Allied advance upon the city, and
feel that they have no means of resisting it. In order to avert
their downfall they are willing to make great concessions. How much
their promises are to be trusted, especially in the matter of
refraining from propaganda, it is difficult to say. The best, or,
one might say, the worst of them are such complete fanatics that it
is hard to believe that they will refrain from spreading their faith
no matter what assurances they may give.
Bela Kun, who is superior to most of his associates, may be able to
control the situation and to institute a stable and relatively
moderate government, especially if it is necessary to do so in order
to escape foreign intervention. If no such intervention is
contemplated, he is the man that must be dealt with. An intervention
will mean bloodshed and perhaps massacre. If, on the other hand, the
only way to check definitely the spread of bolshevism in this part
of the world is to crush it
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out in Hungary at once, action to this effect should be
immediately taken.
A promise of food and supplies to the city provided no excesses take
place before the arrival of the Allied troops, might insure the
maintenance of order in Budapest, and perhaps even the peaceful
surrender of the government. The situation is, in any case, big with
responsibilities. Until the Roumanian advance I had felt that it was
better not to attempt intervention in Hungary. Since that advance I
have believed that prompt, decisive action would be the best course.
In another week I may see cause to modify my opinion again—for
events move quickly.
The suggestion that Bela Kun be invited to Switzerland to meet a
representative from the Allies, raises not merely a Hungarian but
far reaching general questions about which I do not feel called upon
to comment.
I have [etc.]
[Enclosure 1]
Lieutenant William H.
Osborn to Professor A. C.
Coolidge
Subject: Proposal for conference with Bela Kun
in Switzerland.
1. Professor Brown sent me to Vienna with the courier especially
to urge the proposal for a conference to be held in Switzerland
between Bela Kun and a mission from the Entente in Paris. The
ground in Budapest is well prepared for the formation of a
transitional government along moderate socialist lines, but it
is felt that no such government would succeed the present one
without considerable bloodshed unless Bela Kun were a member of
it. At the present time he is extremely popular with the radical
elements in the city, but is also exerting all his influence to
keep down their excesses. In any change he would be the only man
who could satisfy these elements, and prevent their causing
trouble.
2. In order to permit the new transitional government to get on
its feet and at the same time keep in check the wilder elements
Bela Kun accompanied by one or two men of known moderate
socialist views could be sent by the new government to
Switzerland, in order to meet the Entente representatives. Such
a move would immediately give the extremists confidence in the
new government, while getting Kun out of the city and giving the
new regime a chance to become installed without his
presence.
Mr. Brown was assured last night by Agoston, a Minister for
Foreign Affairs and one of the most substantial and moderate men
in the present government, that not only was an immediate change
in the government being contemplated, but that the sending of
Kun to
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Switzerland
accompanied by Kunfi and some representative of the workmen, or
perhaps Agoston himself, would be the surest means of effecting
the change.
4. Furthermore, it is Kun’s ambition to act as an intermediary
between the Entente and Lenin, and Mr. Brown feels that possibly
some important steps could be taken along that line by the
proposed conference.
5. This proposal is made by Professor Brown as a direct result of
his conferences with more moderate members of the government who
wish to bring about a change, but find their hands tied by the
attitude of the extremists. On account of Bela Kun’s position
and popularity, he seems to be the only factor that will make
possible a transitional government without resort to violent
measures. Mr. Brown considers it impossible to make a change
that will throw out Bela Kun entirely, without giving him or the
people who believe in him any recognition of his position, and
that only by sending him on such a mission can Kun and his
followers be satisfied and permit the new government to obtain
power.
[Enclosure 2]
Professor Philip M.
Brown (by oral report
of Courier) to Professor A. C. Coolidge
Subject: Memorandum of situation in Budapest
April 24, 1919.
- 1.
- Unconfirmed reports are to the effect that the Roumanian
advance is continuing. The infantry advance is preceded by
cavalry patrols. The general in command of the French forces
in the south issued a proclamation stating that the French
would begin an advance on April 23d. There is no information
as to whether or not the advance has actually begun. The
announcement was made that the advancing forces had with
them the elements of a new government to take control of
Budapest, the individuals named being Vagy, Minister of the
Interior under Karolyi, and Ugron, a member of the Wecherle
Cabinet. The information as to these two individuals being
with the advancing forces has been substantiated by more
than one source. The advancing troops are said to be
organizing the counter-revolutionary element as they
proceed, so as to increase the local military forces which
would add security to the establishment of the new
government.
- 2.
- There have been indications for some time past that there
is a revulsion of feeling on the part of the working men of
Budapest against the Bolshevist Government, notably among
the iron workers. It is believed that they would welcome the
intervention of any foreign troops who would assure the
prevention of bloodshed and pillage in the city, the idea
being that with a change in the regime subsequent measures
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could be taken
to have foreign troops withdrawn when the stability of the
new government had been assured.
- 3.
- At the present time Bela Kuhn is unquestionably in control
of the city and is showing a disposition to introduce
moderate elements into the government. A number of the more
moderate individuals have been forced to join the Red Guard.
It is unquestionable that his personal popularity is such
that he cannot be disregarded and entirely cast aside in any
contemplated change in the regime. It is he alone who holds
the radical revolutionary elements in the city in check. It
is quite evident that he is willing to form a transition
government of the moderate socialist type, and has even
stated that the elimination of the Bolshevist element in the
present cabinet is being considered. He is willing to come
to an understanding with Garamy.
- 4.
- If a change in the regime is effected and a transitional
government formed, it is desirable that Kuhn Bela remain
temporarily as an official of the new government, in order
to keep the revolutionary elements in control and to avoid
bloodshed. Professor Brown feels very strongly that it is
desirable to have Kuhn Bela meet a representative of the
Entente in Switzerland, not only to discuss the situation in
Budapest and in Hungary but also to act as the intermediary
of Lenin. Professor Brown desires that this be made in the
form of a definite proposition to Paris, and that a definite
and immediate answer be requested. The real reason back of
such a meeting would be to afford a plausible reason for
Kuhn Bela to leave the city and to facilitate the formation
of a transition government during his absence.
- 5.
- Among the names suggested as possible members of a
transition government are Garamy, Böhm and Agoston. The last
named is a minister of foreign affairs in the present
government, is apparently a man of considerable
responsibility and judgment and is believed to hold views of
somewhat moderate nature. The name of Buchinger has also
been suggested. This man is not a member of the present
government, is a former Socialist political boss, but little
is known of him. At the present time it is out of the
question to consider the introduction of any bourgeois
element into the new transition government. Popular feeling
is such that an attempt of this character would cause a lack
of confidence in the new administration.
- 6.
- If a change is to be effected it is desirable that the
Roumanian advance be withheld, in order to allow the new
government to effect a substantial organization and to gain
the confidence of the people. If the change is effected and
the Roumanian advance is continued, the new administration
would in all probability have to cope with outbreaks of a
violent nature in the city. If the change is effected, it is
also desirable that a strong Inter-Allied Commission be sent
to Budapest under the heading of a British or American
representative. This mission could add an element of
responsibility and recognition to the
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new government, and its
personnel could be increased from time to time, so that in
the event of any subsequent attempts at disorder there would
be additional military force to aid in the suppression of
violence.
- 7.
- A representative of Kuhn Bela was authorized by him to
make the following representation with regard to the present
situation:
- (1)
- The reports of a number of arrests in the city are
greatly exaggerated. Men over sixty years of age and
invalids are released. A number of others whose
arrest was found to have been made without
sufficient justification were set at liberty today.
Those still in confinement are well cared for, they
are not in an ordinary prison and their welfare is
supervised by one of Kuhn Bela’s secretaries. (It
may be stated that the release of certain
individuals and the attitude of the authorities
toward the prisoners is the direct result of the
representations of Professor Brown to Kuhn
Bela).
- (2)
- All foreign propaganda has been ordered to
cease.
- (3)
- Kuhn Bela has made up his mind to put an end to
“la tactique Bolsheviste”.
- (4)
- In view of the above steps already taken and to be
taken, Kuhn Bela expects some measures to be adopted
that will stop the Roumanian advance. He is willing
that the subject matter above given be embodied in
the form of a written agreement. This, however,
would require the authorization of some individual
by the Entente, and at the present time there is no
one in Budapest who has such authority.
- 8.
- The proposition of a meeting between Kuhn Bela and others
with a representative of the Entente in Switzerland received
the favorable consideration of Kuhn Bela. Kuhn Bela would be
accompanied by Kunfi and a third person, who would be the
representative of the working men, possibly Agoston.
- 9.
- Professor Brown has intimated to Kuhn Bela that if a
transition government acceptable to the Entente is
organized, economic relief in the form of food stuffs for
the people of Hungary would probably be afforded by the
Entente.
- 10.
- A late report is to the effect that in a local engagement
of minor nature the Bed Guard had succeeded in pushing back
the Roumanian forces.
- C. A. Scully
- W. H. Osborn
