Paris Peace Conf. 184.01202/59

Captain W. R. Gherardi to the Commission to Negotiate Peace

Subject: Summary of German situation end of February 1919.

1. In addition to reports sent in from Berlin during the first part of February 1919, I submit the following summary of German conditions in general with certain deductions as to the future outlook:

2. The present Government holds the majority by a political combination of the Moderate Socialist and the German Democratic Parties. Had the Moderate Socialist Party been able to work out the destiny of the country alone it would have probably declared for a policy of internal reforms and socialization of certain industries looking to the re-establishment of a sound economic condition, if such a thing were possible. In order to have a working majority in the Constituent Assembly the Moderate Socialist had to form a voting combination with the German Democratic Party which, although it has announced a liberal party platform, is controlled by men of ambitious character who, before the revolution, stood for Pan-Germanism. Those most in evidence in this party at Weimar have been Naumann, (the Central Europe Doctrinaire), Bernstorff, Dernburg, Theodor Wolff, etc.

In general there is no change in the viewpoint that the war had been properly conducted by Germany. The systematic removal or destruction of industrial machinery from Belgium, France, and Poland is still referred to as a war necessity, while suggestion[s] for restitution and restoration are met with the assertion that if the allied nations bring industrial pressure on Germany it will drive her into Bolshevism.

The cry of Bolshevism is the propaganda of the present day. It is the card which the German Peace Delegation expect to use at the conference to get them advantageous treatment.

To Germans a “just peace” means restoration of pre-war conditions for Germany in commercial and territorial matters.

3. To the influences of the German Democratic Party may be attributed the sudden reawakening of policies, such as the demands for [Page 34] the return of the colonies, the return of the Province of Posen, the plebiscite for Alsace-Lorraine, all of which came greatly to the fore, both at Weimar and in the press shortly after the Constituent Assembly had met.

I attribute the demand for the vote in Alsace-Lorraine as a political manoeuvre to enable, at some future time, a claim to be raised that these provinces were never given the right of self-determination, but were torn from Germany by force of arms. All parties are in accord on one subject—that German-Austria must join Germany.

4. To preserve the policies of the Moderate socialists in the Government there had developed in Germany but few men of outstanding ability. Auer [Eisner?], who has just been assassinated at Munich; Noske, who has put down the Spartacist uprisings; and Ebert, appear to be the leaders of those who genuinely seek for higher political ideals for Germany. Scheidemann’s sincerity as a reformer is open to question. Brockdorff-Rantzau is of the old school of German diplomacy. He is closely allied with Bernstorff. As adviser to to the Ebert-Scheidemann Government in their dealings with the allied nations and America he shows a failure to realize that times have changed from those when German influence was powerful in the world.

The Independent Socialist Party under Haase will not co-operate with the Government and attacks it bitterly on nearly all occasions. It is a growing party, but one whose influences are destructive.

To say that a new spirit has grown up in Germany as a result of the war would be going too far at present. There is profound depression for the future outlook. There is also a spirit of complaint and whining which sits ill on a nation with such a record.

The Foreign Office, under Brockdorff-Rantzau, is a greater factor in the Government now than in the past, having acquired those powers formerly under control of the political section of the General Staff of the Army.

The people themselves show an undeveloped political sense. It may be too much to expect from the present generation that new ideals should have taken root, but the political instability of the people leaves Germany in a state of flux from which disorder is likely to develop.

There are no signs at present of a desire for a return of the Hohen-zollerns, but there are many people who think Germany will be stable only as a limited monarchy. For the time being such a development need not be considered. The struggle is between democracy and Bolshevism.

5. The food conditions in Germany have been carefully gone over by Dr. Alonzo Taylor and Mr. Vernon Kellogg, of Mr. Hoover’s Staff. [Page 35] A British Commission has also covered the same ground. They are in substantial agreement that the present food ration will have to be greatly reduced by the end of March, unless large importations of food are arranged at once. To give the people two thirds of the normal ration will be about the maximum that can be arranged for under any conditions. This year’s crop cannot be reckoned as more than half the normal, and the probabilities of getting agriculture on its old basis for the next year is slight. This means large purchases of food abroad by a country whose finances are in a desperate condition.

Before the war Germany made in industrial pursuits great sums which went to support her population. The prospect for the revival of this is remote. The development in those lines of industry in America and England, which before the war formed Germany’s chief sources of income, are such as largely to preclude Germany under her present condition from competing in the world’s market. Her financial resources, which must be curtailed for restoration of destroyed areas and for reparation for illegal acts, are not sufficient to finance great manufacturing ventures and to provide the raw stuffs to start them. The chance of her shipping being available to move overseas freight in the interests of her own producers is remote. That important asset of “good will” is lacking generally throughout the world, and the great Russian market for her goods is, for the present, unable to absorb manufactured articles if such could be produced.

At present unemployment in Berlin is reckoned at 325,000 and in other cities it has reached large numbers, and unemployment is on the increase everywhere. The Government is paying a high living allowance to the unemployed. The Government realizes that it is creating a financially impossible situation, but frankly states that they cannot at this time afford to withdraw or decrease these allowances as further rioting and bloodshed would lead to its overthrow.

6. No Government, however vigorous and long established, can stand against economic conditions such as these, unless there is conviction amongst the people that conditions will eventually be ameliorated. Considering the world’s decreased power to absorb goods, it is not easy to see how, with justice to the allied nations, Germany can employ and feed her industrial population. There are twenty-five or thirty million of excess population over what she can maintain from an agricultural standpoint.

7. The people of the cities show their underfeeding by their pallor and leanness. In general they are apathetic. There is no desire for further war. Those who are ready for disorder are found in the classes who have nothing to lose by plunging the country into the horrors of class warfare. In the Spartacist uprising of January the [Page 36] Government had at first no force at its disposal. At one time they were at the point of abandoning the Government offices to the Spartacists and seeking safety in flight.

8. The Gurstenberg and Reinhardt regiments, hastily raised by their leaders and highly paid by the Government, saved the situation. Their personnel were recruited from citizens, officers out of employment—some of whom served in the ranks, and such others as would serve for the adventure or for patriotic reasons. General Von Luttwitz, who is trusted by the new Government in Berlin, has general supervision over these regiments, which have recently done good work in suppressing the disorders in Hamburg and Bremen, as well as keeping order in Berlin, but the number of troops available under this system and their prolonged loyalty under adverse conditions is a matter which only the future can tell.

9. The old army organization, now known as the “Corps Soldaten”, is stated by the Government to be about 200,000 men, with Hinden-burg as Chief of the General Staff in command. Discipline has gone down greatly. The Russian influence is at work on the soldiers on the Eastern frontier. From what I could gather this force would not prove a danger to troops disciplined and well supplied. If Germany should become a Bolshevist State they might form a nucleus for a force seeking to extend that creed to the West, but for the present they are not an effective fighting force.

10. The general apathy of those classes of the people who are usually the backbone of a nation is a danger to stability, which must be recognized. A general loosening of both morale and morals is clearly observable. Crime of all sorts is greatly on the increase.

11. A reasonable discussion of the situation of Germany from any point of view is rarely to be found in the press. There are many newspapers devoted to minor political manoeuvres, abuse of the Allied Governments for their demands, and of the German Armistice Commission for their acceptance of such demands. The press, as well as the people, appears to have no idea of the present position of Germany in the world. They fail to understand that even with the peace treaty signed Germans cannot take their old position and be received as if nothing had happened to make them unacceptable in both business and social relations. The old idea that Germans will one day control the world is not in evidence, but it still exists among the intellectuals. To this end the German Democratic Party seeks to hold the old boundaries and colonies and annex German-Austria. To deal with her justly with regard to the economic necessities of the present, and to prevent a rebuilding of the policies of domination is the problem of the moment.

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12. The question of the survival of the present German Government depends on the economic conditions which the immediate future will present. Those matters relating to colonies, boundary lines, return of prisoners-of-war, etc. have little relation to Bolshevism in Germany, although politicians and a large section of the press attempt to unite them with that issue.

13. With all the undesirable points of the present Government in Germany it appears to contain about all of the political ability that is available at the present time. A total collapse of the Ebert-Scheidemann Government would leave the country in a state of anarchy which would enable the Bolshevist movement to take possession, and Bolshevism is as possible for a disorganized Germany as it was for a disorganized Russia.

14. There was evidence in Berlin that Germany counted on differences between the Allies and the United States to bring advantages in the peace terms to herself.

W. R. Gherardi