763.72/2413½
The Ambassador in Italy (Page) to the Secretary of State
My Dear Mr. Secretary: The political situation here seems, for the moment, about what it has been for some time past. It is possible, however, that two or three things which are promised, may produce some changes, though no one appears to know precisely what form these will take. The two most likely factors among those referred to are the visit of M. Briand, who is expected to arrive to-morrow with a suite of several members of the cabinet and a general or two for the purpose,—according to the press,—of bringing about a closer political harmony among the Allies than has hitherto existed. The other thing is the re-convening of the Chamber, which is set for the 1st of March, the date fixed at the time of its adjournment.
There was talk some little time ago of calling the Chamber in session, even before this date; but the apparent danger of the crisis which existed at that time passed away. Undoubtedly, however, the meeting of the Chamber will bring the Government face to face with the discussion of questions which may make their position somewhat difficult, and which I doubt not they will be glad to have obviated.
The men at the head of the Government, however, are strong men as well as men of experience in parliamentary life, and if they work in harmony, they may be able, by forcing a vote of direct confidence based on the conduct of the war, to secure the substantial majority, as they did during the last session.
[Page 734]Although, as you know, the constituency of the Chamber did not contain a Salandra majority, the Government has hitherto been able always to have a substantial majority at its back, and it is not likely that in the present state of affairs any considerable part of the Chamber will undertake to do directly what would be equivalent to swapping horses in the midst of the stream.
There appear from time to time strong undercurrents of criticism of the Government made up of the most part of a number of subsidiary currents, all counter to the Government; but yet unwilling to fuse their forces in front of the manifest danger of overthrowing a Government without a better one to put in its place.
The victory of the Austrians in the western Balkan States and the complete collapse of Montenegro following that of Servia, has been a tremendous blow to the pride of Italy and has occasioned a very real danger to what Italy has hoped for her unquestioned control of the Adriatic.
As I stated in my last letter,52 it was in a way fortunate for the Government that the failure to succor Montenegro resulted in such criticism in the English press and, to a less extent, in the French press. No country in the world is more sensitive to criticism than Italy and the Italian press was quick to respond, reflecting the resentment which this criticism caused throughout Italy.
Another cause contributed at the same time to arouse resentment here against England,—the sudden increase of freight rates for sea traffic from England to Italy, from which resulted a coal famine that threatened for a time to be disastrous, and an increase in prices of other necessary commodities. There was danger, indeed, of having to shut down important manufactures and of stopping important railway trains. Hard coal went up to 225 lire a ton, which is in the neighbourhood of forty dollars, and soft coal was somewhat less; but still high enough to make even an Ambassador shiver.
The feeling manifested over this throughout Italy has led to the English government’s undertaking some remedial regulations and the English press seems to have felt it opportune to change the tone of criticism, to one of what, to judge from the quotations therefrom in the Italian press at present, is almost adulatory.
Undoubtedly, these things have served to emphasize divergencies between the Allies, and while the Governments have worked in entire accord, one gets echoes of much criticism among those who have no official responsibility to temper their expressions.
I hear, and I believe it to be true, that Briand’s visit here is partly with the design of soothing asperities which, although not publicly [Page 735] expressed, are in private life hinted at, as well as to help formulate an accordant plan of political action hereafter.
One rumor, possibly it is more than a rumor, is that there is to be a French head to the inter-allied commission which is said to be in process of formation, with its headquarters at Paris, and that this is because of a view held by the other allies that England has the materiel; but so far as [has] not developed men to direct its application in the most effective manner.
I give this report as throwing a light on the views held here by some whose opinions are usually considered of value.
It is possible that the arrival of Briand may bring out facts which will clear up some of the obscurities at present existing to which I have referred.
Believe me [etc.]
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