The Ambassador in Great Britain (Page) to the Secretary of State
[Received 8:15 p. m.]
4032. For the President only. Thoughtful men here in public and private life agree on two propositions.
First. That a break in American-German diplomatic relations would quickly end the war. This is, in English opinion, the one practical and effective move to bring an early peace, to save perhaps a million lives and [incalculable] suffering.
Second. Nobody believes that a diplomatic break would lead to war between the United States and Germany. It would be merely such a threat of war as would convince the Germans that their cause is lost. For commercial and financial reasons after the war they will not provoke open hostilities. [Kitchener] holds these two opinions and openly expresses them.[Page 707]
A third proposition would [follow,] namely, that such a breach of diplomatic relations would prepare a practical basis for an enduring peace which it will be exceedingly difficult otherwise to arrange. And this is the only plan whereby the moral influence of the United States can be exerted for peace.