841.857 Ar 1/90½a
The Secretary of State to President Wilson
My Dear Mr. President: In view of the situation created by the torpedoing of the Arabic and the danger of being involved in war with Germany in case we should sever diplomatic relations, which appears probable, I have been considering the general effect of a state of war between this country and Germany upon the part we desire to play when negotiations for peace may seem practicable.
The position which we have hoped to occupy, was that of a mutual friend to the belligerents, who would act as intermediary in opening negotiations and as a restraint upon either party in making oppressive demands.
As the war has progressed I have become more and more convinced that we are losing constantly the friendship of both parties and that we would have little influence upon either in bringing about negotiations or in moulding the terms of peace. It would take but little to eliminate us entirely in the final settlement.
So far as Germany is concerned, I think that we have lost irretrievably any influence we may have possessed over her Government, and that our participation in any way in the restoration of peace would be resented.
As to the Allies, I believe that their distorted views as to our attitude, which is certainly misunderstood in Great Britain, would deprive us of influence with them.
Now, on the assumption that we sever diplomatic intercourse with the German Government, which responds by a declaration of war, the consequences internationally would seem to be the complete restoration of friendship and confidence with the Allies and the necessary recognition of the United States as a party to the peace negotiations. We would be in a position to influence the Allies, if they should be victorious, to be lenient in their demands and to regain a part of the good will of Germany by being a generous enemy. If, on the other hand, Germany should triumph, we would [Page 471] be included in any settlement made, and Germany would be deprived of the free hand she would otherwise have in dealing with us after she had overcome her European adversaries.
If the foregoing views are sound, it would appear that our usefulness in the restoration of peace would certainly not be lessened by a state of war between this country and Germany, and it might even be increased.
I have endeavored to analyze the situation impartially from the standpoint of our international relations and not from the standpoint of domestic policy. As to the latter standpoint my ideas are less definite. I do not know what effect war would have upon the American people. Of one thing though I am convinced, it will not arouse very much enthusiasm, however it may be approved by the American people other than those of German birth or descent. Beyond this I do not wish at the present time to express an opinion.
Faithfully yours,