[Enclosure]
The Counselor for the Department of State
(Lansing) to the Secretary of State
[Washington,]
April 2, 1915.
Dear Mr. Secretary: The enclosed
memorandum prepared six weeks ago you may think worthy of
consideration in connection with the letter I am sending you to-day
regarding the death of Leon C. Thrasher through the sinking of the
British S. S. Falaba by a German
submarine.
Since writing the memorandum I have been informed through different
channels that German public opinion takes a very similar view of the
situation.
Faithfully yours,
[Subenclosure]
Memorandum by the Counselor for the Department of State
(Lansing) on Relations With
Germany and Possibilities
[Washington,]
February 15, 1915.
Present Situation
No commerce with Germany in any articles of contraband, except a
negligible amount smuggled through neutral ports.
Free commerce with Allies in all munitions of war and supplies.
There are interned German vessels in ports of the United States,
valued at approximately 100 millions of dollars.
Possible situation in case of War between
United States and Germany
Commercial situation would not be changed so far as Germany is
concerned, except that German naval forces would have greater right
to interrupt trade with Allies.
The United States could not send an army to Europe, hence no
increased military strength to Germany’s enemies on land.
The British Navy being already superior to that of Germany, the
addition of the naval force of the United States would have no
effect on the situation at sea.
[Page 368]
There might be created a state of civil discord, and possibly of
civil strife, in the United States, which would cause this
Government to retain for its own use the munitions and supplies now
being sent in great quantities to the Allies.
The interned German vessels would be seized by the United States.
Advantages and Disadvantages to Germany of War
with United States
The Advantages would seem to be—
- A free hand in interruption of United States trade with
the Allies.
- A possible situation in the United States which would
lessen exports to Allies.
- No change in military or naval situation.
The Disadvantages would seem to be—
- Cessation of influence of United States upon Great Britain
to allow Germany to receive food from United States.
- Cessation of all trade in non-contraband with United
States.
- Loss of a small amount of contraband smuggled into Germany
from United States through neutral ports.
- The loss of about 100 millions of dollars of capital tied
up in interned ships, which is now inactive and
useless.
The Advantages appear to outweigh the Disadvantages.
