763.72111/55½
The Counselor for the Department of State (Lansing) to the Secretary of State
Dear Mr. Secretary: I have been thinking over the Far Eastern situation which has been, as I understand, submitted to the President to determine a course of action, and the following seems to me as worthy of consideration:
Persistent reports and rumors are that Japan intends to act upon her treaty alliance with Great Britain and declare war upon Germany within a few days, one report stating that this would be done by the 15th of the month. If we should endeavor to secure the neutralization of the treaty ports, the observance of Chinese neutrality and the preservation of the status quo before Japan declares war, it would seem to be our duty to approach that government first in accordance with the exchange of notes to which reference is made in the draft of the Aide Memoire submitted to you.8 Presumably if [Page 4] Japan determined to begin war against Germany, she would be disposed to ignore or at least delay reply to our communication, and we would therefore gain no benefit by immediate action. On the other hand, if we wait before acting in regard to the questions of neutralization and status quo in China, until war between Japan and Germany has been declared, I do not think we would be bound to present the matter in the first instance to the Japanese Government, but with perfect propriety might approach all the belligerents upon the subject simultaneously, including in our note to Japan a statement as to the binding effect of the notes exchanged with her government.
In view of these considerations, I have changed my views as to the necessity of immediate action, and believe that we would gain a diplomatic advantage by waiting until Japan has taken decisive action in regard to her attitude toward Germany.
I am putting this in the form of a letter, in order that it may be more convenient for you to submit these observations to the President, in case you approve.
Very sincerely yours,
- Draft of the aide-mémoire to the Japanese Embassy not printed; it referred to the Root-Takahira notes of Nov. 30, 1908, printed in Foreign Relations, 1908. pp. 510–512.↩