Mr. Morris to Mr. Seward.
Sir: * * * * *
The unsettled state of affairs in the Danubian principalities, and the apprehension of war in that quarter, has led the Forte to despatch all its available forces to the Danubian frontier. Troops are constantly passing through the capital to Shumla and Silistria, and munitions of war and army supplies are being despatched thither in great quantities. In these two fortresses, which are regarded as the keys to Constantinople on the north, a force of over 60,000 men will soon be concentrated. The appearance of large masses of Russian troops in Bessarabia, in the immediate vicinity of the Turkish frontier, has excited the fears of the Porte, and it seems to have good reason to believe that the safety of the empire requires prompt and efficient measures of defence on the Danube and at the Shumla pass of the Balkan.
Opinions are divergent as to the proper policy relative to the Danubian principalities. The Porte desires the separation of Moldavia and Wallachia into distinct governments, and Russia also favors the same, but for reasons special to herself. The Porte apprehends their continued union may lead to absolute independence, and Russia hopes, in case of a separation of the provinces, to secure as hospodars in each secret partisans of her own. France insists on the union of the provinces under one government, as the only means of preventing them from being absorbed by Russia, and as a necessary precedent to the complete independence which she desires for them. It is her policy to create a new state out of these provinces as a barrier against Russian aggressions on Turkey. It will be difficult to reconcile these conflicting views, as reasons of state, affecting the balance of power in Europe, lie at the bottom of the whole question. For the moment, this question is overshadowed by the graver one that has grown out of the Schleswig-Holstein difficulty, but it is full of danger, and may of itself disturb the peace of Europe, and reopen (and possibly for a final settlement) the oriental question.
Should war occur between Austria and Prussia, there is but little doubt that Russia will find a cause of quarrel with Turkey, and that these two powers will be engaged in war. The issue of. such a struggle pending a Germanic war, and the general complications to which it would give birth, might be seriously detrimental to Turkey. Never was a country more illy prepared for war than Turkey now is. Her credit has sunk to such a degree that it is almost next to impossible to negotiate foreign loans but at ruinous rates. In case of war, she could not raise a dollar in any European capital, and a resort to paper money would be an absolute necessity. The treasury is empty, and the government is sustained by loans, as there is a large annual deficit from the lack of revenue. [Page 241] But for the expedient of loans, the annually accruing interest on the public debt could not be paid. In the midst of all the embarrassments and perils, I regret to be obliged to state that the Sultan gives evident proof of positive mental imbecility and incapacity.
I am, sir, with great respect, your obedient servant,
Hon. William H. Seward, Secretary of State, Washington, D. C.