Mr. Yeaman to Mr. Seward.
Sir: * * * * * * * *
My interviews at the foreign office, the known opposition of Russia to a Scandinavian union, the matrimonal alliance mentioned in my last, and other facts induce me to believe that there has not been a military alliance formed between Denmark and Sweden; and this is the opinion of most of my colleagues.
The Emperor of France is said to have written a letter to the King of Denmark, which I take to be concerning the present military affairs of Europe; but the purport of his views and advice has not transpired.
It is now again astir here that Prussia is seeking an alliance with Denmark, on the basis of guaranteeing to her the present boundaries and limits of the kingdom. Such an offer would have an indicative meaning—an implied or negative threat upon Jutland. It is almost incredible that it could be made, or that a government of spirit, having due regard to its own position and rights, could accept it when made.
Europeans were so constantly in error, and so often unjust in their estimates of our late war, that an American is naturally inclined to be cautious in forming or expressing any opinion as to what is now going on in Europe; but if one may express an opinion on that subject, it seems to me that in Germany the Bund or federal Diet is gone, not to be restored; that Germany will not become a unit, but dual; and that Prussia, by absorbing the north and west, will become the leading German power. Of course, decided military reverses (and they will have to be very decided) would prevent that result. It further seems to me that this consolidation of Germany would benefit Europe and the cause of government everywhere. Certainly, the first result would be to aggrandize the power and the territory of the King; and we may attribute the accomplishment of this end to what motive we please, yet it gratifies one aspiration of the German mind—nationality. The other aspiration is the admitted liberal tendency, and the next step would be an improved, if not a free, representative government; and it is not difficult to see that the road is much clearer to that end with but one dynasty or heriditary power in the way than with a dozen or twenty to contend with. Germany, as lately organized, was too feudal. The governments of Europe were never in any degree moderate, free, or constitutional, never presented any adequate theatre for public opinion to operate upon, until the Crown and the people joined together and overthrew the lords and barons, and left the remainder of the contest between Crown and citizen—in large nationalities. And, leaving all possible room for the disappointments and the fortunes of war, this is what seems to be opening up in Germany.
There now seems no doubt of the truth of my suggestion in a former despatch, that in some of the smaller kingdoms, where the court went for Austria, the people were for Prussia. We must not let a certain wilfulness and brusqueness of administration at Berlin (often denounced with much harsher names) obstruct our view from the real elements and probabilities involved in this contest, nor blind us to the possibility that more may come of it than the present King and his very energetic premier intend, or, perhaps, would wish.
I have the honor to be, sir, very respectfully, your most obedient servant,
Hon. William H. Seward, Secretary of State, Washington, D. C.