Mr. Pike to Mr. Seward
Sir: * * * * * *
Since the taking of Atlanta by General Sherman, there has been a marked change in the public sentiment of Europe in regard to our affairs. Previous to that period the conviction had become general that the last strongholds of the rebellion, Richmond, Charleston, and Atlanta, were strong enough to defy the assaults and the strategy of the federal arms. This judgment was everywhere ostentatiously promulgated.
The unexpected fall of Atlanta suddenly destroyed the illusion, and the public judgment on the whole subject fell to pieces. Since then it has little by little been centering itself on another and quite opposite view, which the recent accounts of the campaign of General Sheridan in the Shenandoah valley tend strongly to confirm. This is, that the greatly preponderating weight of the loyal States is at length under skilful generalship, and that the rebellion is too much exhausted to withstand it. The favorite form of doubt about the success of the government now is, that, while it is admitted to be probable its armies will overrun and occupy the seceding States, insuperable difficulties to their pacification will still be found.
This, you perceive, is a vast contraction of the line of argumentation here against the prosecution of the war. It is, in fact, a retreat to a position seen to be untenable by all, even by those who occupy it, since it is equivalent to a denial that in war the conquered party does not submit, and that we have no statesmanship to deal with results which war achieves.
We have here a fresh illustration that our victories over the moral hostility of Europe keep exact pace with those of our armies in the field over the rebels. In war we know that argumentation becomes of small account, whether at home or abroad. The sword settles all. Especially is it the only thing which will settle the stilted penny-a-lining with which our cause has been assailed in Europe ever since the beginning of our struggle. Every time our generals defeat a column of the enemy at home, they annihilate many columns of the same enemy over here.
The general aspects of the European world are peaceable. Elements of disturbance there are as usual, but they are less numerous than common. The Danish question, the Roman question, and the Polish question, all of which have been so long threatening the public peace, are disposed of on terms that are accepted by the leading powers, if not satisfactory to them; and thus the present danger of war in Europe from these causes has disappeared.
The commercial world is undergoing a violent shock, attended with much disaster and many apprehensions. The cotton question, after slumbering for a year or two, reappears to aid the disturbance, of which it did much to lay the foundation. The fall in its price has demolished many fortunes erected on its rise. This, acting with the collapse of extensive commercial and industrial speculations of every possible nature, fomented by the establishment of an extraordinary number of joint-stock companies, invading every branch of trade and industry, has thrown mercantile and financial affairs into a confusion, of which the issues are not yet clearly perceived.
The great abundance of the resources of commerce, now capable of such rapid concentration, and the full and still rapidly increasing supply of the precious metals, may be expected, however, to aid powerfully in the rapid restoration of affairs to a healthy condition. Money, though exceptionally high in price, was [Page 327] never so plentiful, and financial disaster, therefore, under these new conditions. cannot soon again be so sharp or so long continued as when the supply was restricted to a half of what it now is. The same consideration promotes, also, a cheerful view of our own national finances.
The mercantile rate of interest in Europe is now hardly less than nine percent., while our government bonds still command an almost unlimited supply of capital at about twelve per cent. If the loyal States would close up their political divisions, and unitedly put their shoulders to the wheel to crush the evidently tottering rebellion, we could probably borrow what money we want to borrow in Europe as cheap, under a judicious administration of our finances, as the merchants get it. The distrust occasioned by these divisions costs us the difference we are now paying.
I have the honor to be, with great respect, your most obedient servant,
Hon. William H. Seward, Secretary of State, Washington, D. C.