Office of the Historian

165. Memorandum From William G. Bowdler of the National Security Council Staff to President Johnson1

Washington, March 25, 1966, 1:30 p.m.

SUBJECT

  • Preliminary Read out of Dominican Poll

The preliminary results of the February–March poll in the Dominican Republic show few differences with the November poll, and the differences which do occur do not affect the standing of the main candidates.

  • —Balaguer still leads Bosch by better than 2 to 1 (50.4% to 21%). This represents a drop of .6% for Balaguer from the November poll and 1.0% for Bosch.
  • —In party strength, Balaguerʼs PR party leads Boschʼs PRD party by 41.6% to 21.6%. This represents a drop of 0.6% for the PR from the November poll and 7.4% for the PRD.
  • —On the issue of our military intervention, 63.2% of the Dominicans continue to think that it helped. In November the figure was 65%.
  • —On the IAPF departing, 46.1% of the people now think that the Force should stay beyond elections, an increase of 7.5% over the November poll.

Two important factors must be borne in mind in assessing the figures on the candidates and their parties:

  • —The poll does not cover a period when Bosch was actively campaigning—and he is a formidable campaigner.
  • —The pollʼs percentages are based on the assumption that the population of actual voters does not differ significantly from the population of eligible voters.2

Alarge voter turnout—particularly in rural areas where Balaguerʼs strength is concentrated—is essential to Balaguerʼs chances.CIA, State, Bunker and the Embassy are keenly aware of this and know that a substantial portion of their homework lies in this direction. I am satisfied that they are hard at it, and Garcia Godoy is cooperating fully. But a reminder by you to Ellsworth when you next see him would not be amiss.

A copy of the [less than 1 line of source text not declassified] report is attached.3

WGB
  1. Source: Johnson Library, National Security File, Memos to the President, McGeorge Bundy, Vol. 21.Secret; Eyes Only. An “L” on the memorandum indicates that the President saw it. A copy was sent to Bill Moyers.↩
  2. Komer commented on this p ARA graph and wrote the following note at the bottom of the page: “Iʼm asking Bowdler to look at pros and cons of surfacing this.”↩
  3. Attached but not printed.↩