153. Letter From the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs (Dabney) to the Deputy Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs (Hare)1
Dear Mr. Hare: The Israeli request for military assistance on which you requested Department of Defense views in your letter of February 20, 19602 has received careful consideration by the Joint Chiefs of Staff and by this office.
The Defense Department has concluded that the Israeli assertion concerning the magnitude of the gap in armaments between Israel and the Arab states is generally accurate. The military matériel in the hands of the combined Arab states was judged in September 1958 to be quantitatively superior to that available to the Israeli Defense Forces in most categories of weapons. Since that time the equipment of the Arab military forces has further increased relative to the comparable Israeli matériel. Arab weapons, particularly those of the United Arab Republic, are also generally more modern and effective than those currently held by the Israelis. However, available matériel is only one factor in determining the comparative effectiveness of military forces. Israeli forces are qualitatively superior in such factors as mobilization capability, leadership, training, organization, morale, and determination. Consequently, their present overall capability is judged to be sufficient to enable them to defeat the military forces of any combination of Israel’s Arab neighbors.
The Israeli assertion that without the military assistance requested, their “sole deterrent against Arab aggression will within two or three years be completely annulled”, is open to question, even without considering deterrents to Arab aggression other than the military effectiveness of the Israeli Defense Forces. Aside from Israel’s overwhelming military superiority in the non-matériel areas, other [Page 337] factors will influence the effectiveness of the Israeli Defense Forces relative to the total forces of the several neighboring Arab states. These include: the rate and degree of improvement of Arab technical and operational efficiency; the rate at which the Arab states augment and expand their current arms inventories; the rate and degree of deterioration of current Israeli equipment; and Israeli ability to acquire modern arms and equipment. Since insufficient information is currently available to measure these several factors accurately, a definitive judgment cannot be rendered on the specific Israeli assertion. However, if the recent rate of Arab arms acquisition continues, and unless the Israeli forces receive military assistance from some source, the Israeli military position vis-à-vis the neighboring Arab states will be jeopardized eventually.
In view of the foregoing, and taking into account the fact that Israel is also seeking military matériel from its usual sources, France and the United Kingdom, there appears no valid military reason to accede at this time to Israel’s request for military assistance from the United States or for economic aid in lieu thereof. If there are compelling political reasons for meeting this request in some respect, the Defense Department recommends that assistance be limited to the sale of defensive type equipment. Matériel of this defensive nature which could contribute most effectively to the Israeli military capability is in the early warning and detection area; and Secretary Douglas’ letter to Under Secretary Dillon of May 18, 19603 set forth the Defense recommendation on equipment of this type.
The information which you requested on the cost, availability and military security classification of the listed items is attached in tabular form.4
Sincerely yours,
Lieutenant General, USA